Palakkad bypoll: It's a three-way race, with internal rifts to the core

When The Federal met Congress leader and former Palakkad MLA Shafi Parambil, he was busy campaigning as the United Democratic Front (UDF) candidate for the Lok Sabha election in Vadakara. His move to Vadakara stirred significant discussion, particularly because the BJP had been making inroads in Palakkad since 2016, pushing the Left Democratic Front (LDF) to the third spot. During the interview, Shafi was optimistic, asserting that he would secure victory in Vadakara and that his successor would also emerge victorious in Palakkad.

Fast-forward four months since Shafi’s spectacular victory in Vadakara, a minority-dominated traditional stronghold of the Left. The onus is now on him to secure the Palakkad seat. The Congress has put its faith in his nominee, Rahul Mamkoottathil, a decision that has sparked significant local dissent.

Ditching Congress for Left

In a striking turn of events, Dr. P Sarin, who had been the party’s state digital media convener, has defected to the LDF and will contest as its candidate, signalling potential challenges for the Congress in maintaining its foothold in the region.

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Now the challenge before Shafi and the Congress -- of which a significant section is already prepared to blame him if they lose -- is not only to win but also to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at bay. The BJP has been knocking on the doors for the last two elections, unseating the LDF from the second position.

Advantage Congress

The voting pattern in the Palakkad constituency indicates that the Congress holds a clear advantage, with Shafi winning the seat in three consecutive Assembly elections since 2011. His success has largely depended on support from both minority communities and upper-caste Hindus. Shafi’s appeal lies in his ability to connect with both groups, balancing his identity as a Muslim with his reputation as a soft-spoken, well-mannered and educated young leader.

The last time the LDF won the Palakkad constituency was when CPI(M) trade unionist KK Divakaran defeated Congress’ AV Gopinathan by a narrow margin of 1,287 votes, riding a strong wave of support for the Left.

The BJP, which had been gradually increasing its vote share since the 1990s, overtook the LDF candidate in 2016 and maintained the second place in 2021. This time, the contest was even fiercer, with the BJP fielding “Metroman” E Sreedharan against Shafi. It is an open secret that many hardcore Left voters, predominantly CPI(M) cadres, cross-voted -- allegedly following unofficial instructions from their leadership, though publicly denied -- to keep the BJP at bay.

Congress’ charge against Left

However, this time, with Dr. P Sarin as the Left candidate and their hopes of drawing votes from the UDF camp, cross-voting might not occur. The Congress, on the other hand, has accused the Left of colluding with the BJP.

“It’s no longer a secret how the CPI(M) is playing to the BJP’s advantage,” said Shafi. “The people of Palakkad know it, and even their hardcore voters, who are secular and anti-BJP, will vote for Rahul Mamkoottathil. We are confident of winning. Who comes second is not our concern. Both our opponents claim to be our main challengers. That’s for them to decide. We already hold a clear lead in the constituency,” Shafi said, expressing the same confidence he showed in Vadakara as well.

IUML support for Congress

Interestingly, when we met Shafi and Rahul on the campaign trail at night in Puthuppally Theruvu, it was primarily the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) workers who were leading the way. IUML leaders N Shamsuddin and Najeeb Kanthapuram, along with Congress’ Anvar Sadath MLA, accompanied them.

This time, the BJP is adopting a “watch and wait” strategy, as internal troubles are affecting their party as well. There was confusion in selecting a candidate, with a major faction supporting Shobha Surendran, who led the party to second place for the first time in 2016, rising from virtually nowhere. But the leadership decided to field C Krishnakumar, who performed well in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and in the 2021 Assembly elections from the neighbouring Malampuzha constituency.

BJP hopeful amid doubts

The BJP is relying on its new face, Suresh Gopi, who secured their first-ever victory in Thrissur during the Lok Sabha election. They seem to be intentionally limiting extravagant campaigning to avoid instilling fear in the minority community, which the RSS leadership believes could lead to consolidation in favour of the Congress.

The saffron party is treading carefully to ensure that non-BJP votes are evenly split between Rahul and Sarin, allowing C Krishnakumar to sneak through.

“We are not making any commitments at this stage, but had the BJP leadership shown a little more acumen, the seat would surely be ours. Not that we are going to lose, but it would have been an easy win otherwise,” said an RSS leader who requested anonymity as he believes he has no authority to comment to the media.

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CPI(M) bounces back

The CPI(M) was initially in a very tricky position, unable to identify a candidate with winning potential. However, with Sarin’s exit from the Congress, the situation has changed completely. Now the party believes they are in the race and have a real chance to turn the table. The situation back in 2019, when they wrested the Vattiyoorkavu (Thiruvananthapuram district) seat from the Congress after finishing third in the 2016 elections, gives them confidence.

“It’s a fact that we are currently in third position. However, with Sarin switching sides, the scenario has changed. This is exactly how it happened in Vattiyoorkavu in 2019. We were third behind the Congress and BJP, but we bounced back with a young candidate, VK Prasanth. Sarin is no Prasanth, who was the city mayor and a party comrade. But we can now penetrate a vote bank that has never been ours until now,” says MB Rajesh, the state LSG and excise minister who leads the campaign in Palakkad.

“If we stand no chance of competing, voters tend to support the potential winner. But now we are also in the fray and eager to go, and the voters feel that as well. This time, a fight is on,” Rajesh told The Federal.

Importance of Palakkad

In the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, Palakkad emerged as one of the most closely contested constituencies and notably one of the three seats where the ruling LDF finished third, along with Kasaragod and Manjeshwar. Interestingly, all three constituencies are located in Kerala’s border districts — Kasaragod, Manjeshwar and Palakkad.

Palakkad shares a border with Tamil Nadu’s Coimbatore, where the BJP is gaining ground despite recent losses, while Manjeshwar borders Karnataka’s Mangalore. The pronounced community divides — unusual for the rest of Kerala — should be seen as a prime factor favouring the BJP’s rise in these regions, with a strong section of the OBC communities deserting the CPI(M) over a period of time. It is noteworthy that Palakkad is the first municipality in Kerala to be governed by the BJP.

This by-election and the dynamics in the Palakkad constituency serve as a specimen for the emergence of the BJP and the establishment of voting patterns similar to those in other states where the saffron party has entered the mainstream.