What Aryadan Shoukath's Nilambur bypoll win means for UDF

The UDF leadership is in joy in Kerala. They pulled off a much-needed victory in Nilambur Assembly bypoll, and remarkably did so without LDF rebel PV Anvar’s help. Anvar, for his part, can also claim jubilation — he polled nearly 20,000 votes fighting alone. Yet for the LDF, the verdict was stark: they lost ground, confirming that anti-incumbency in Kerala is no longer a latent whisper but a resounding reality.

From the moment counting began, it was clear that Aryadan Shoukath’s campaign had tapped into a palpable desire for change. Shoukath secured 77,737 votes, outstripping his nearest rival, CPI(M)’s M Swaraj, who managed 66,660. With a winning margin of 11,077 votes, the UDF reclaimed Nilambur — a constituency it had ceded in 2016 — reaffirming its organisational resilience and strategic outreach across rural hamlets and urban wards alike.

Unpredictable twist

Anvar’s independent bid introduced an unpredictable twist to the race. Campaigning on a hyper-commoner agenda — from tackling human–animal conflicts to decrying what he called the “saffronisation” of the police under “Pinarayism” — he still drew 19,760 votes. His strong showing highlights a growing readiness among Nilambur voters to move beyond the usual UDF–LDF contest.

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His near-20,000-strong tally not only demonstrated his personal appeal but also served as a pressure valve for anti-incumbent sentiment, siphoning off votes that might otherwise have stayed within the Left’s fold.

“My votes have come predominantly from the LDF’s traditional support base. They have lost their base totally and ‘Pinarayism’ will meet its end in the coming assembly election. This is a clear warning and a strong message from the people,” said Anvar after his impressive performance. “I will continue to mobilise people against this administration.”

BJP candidate gets just 8,648 votes

Meanwhile, the BJP’s turncoat Christian candidate Mohan George mustered just 8,648 votes — a total well below what the party achieved in the last Lok Sabha election here. This shortfall underscores the limits of even high-profile defections in swaying a constituency long resistant to the BJP’s appeal. In a three-cornered contest, every vote split counts, and this result will not go unnoticed by political strategists across the spectrum.

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The LDF’s losses were not confined to vote counts; they were geographic and demographic. In Amarambalam and Karulai panchayats — tribal-dominated areas where the Left once held unassailable sway — the LDF eked out only narrow leads. Conversely, in Pothukallu and Nilambur Municipality, former Left strongholds, the UDF not only gained but, overtook the CPM outright in majority of booths. Urban middle-class voters in the municipality, who had supported the Left for more than a decade, showed an drift toward Shoukath’s message of practical governance over ideological rhetoric.

Anti-incumbency, long a cyclical undercurrent in Kerala politics, has now surged to the surface. Pinarayi Vijayan’s government, once buoyed by its decisive flood relief operations and pandemic management, now confronts voter fatigue over delayed welfare schemes, bureaucratic red tape, and perceived gaps in public service delivery. Welfare schemes remain in place, but citizen patience has thinned; constituents are demanding more immediate, visible results.

'Verdict on Pinarayi government'

“This win is proof of our unity, and we were always confident,” said Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan. “This is Kerala’s verdict on the Pinarayi government, and we are confident of winning a resounding majority in the next election as well. There were attempts — especially from sections of the media—to portray us as a divided house, but the people have proved you wrong.”

Even in their moment of triumph, a section in the UDF camp can’t help but regret not forging an alliance with Anvar.

“The anti-incumbency was clear, and we respect the strength of PV Anvar’s performance. We never closed the door on him — he chose to criticise our candidate, and that was his decision. Let’s see how things unfold; now is not the time to discuss future alliances,” said KPCC President Sunny Joseph.

For the UDF, Shoukath’s triumph represents both redemption and responsibility. Breaking Nilambur’s nine-year Left hold restores morale after a string of setbacks elsewhere. Yet sustaining this momentum will require disciplined follow-through, especially with the LSG elections coming in less than six months.

LDF, on the other hand, is dismissing the anti-incumbency factor. “We treated this as a political contest, and it’s a fact that we lost. For us, every election is rooted in political conviction, and perhaps we couldn’t convey our message clearly to the people. There are many factors that may have influenced the outcome, but I can say with pride that we never sought the support of any communal forces. We will reflect on this and go back to the people,” said CPI(M) candidate Swaraj.

“It’s a fact that the UDF candidate also lost votes and failed to match their previous performance. It’s clear they gained from communal votes— even the BJP candidate admitted their cadres supported the UDF,” said CPI(M) state secretary MV Govindan. “Our candidate improved on our 2011 tally, so the claim of anti-incumbency simply doesn’t hold.”

Lessons from Nilambur result

Despite these justifications, the LDF’s strategists face a moment of reckoning. A senior CPI(M) in Malappuram admitted privately that the electorate’s message was unambiguous: “They want performance, not platitudes.” The party’s challenge will be to recalibrate its narrative from grand ideological postures to ground-level delivery.

“We have a lot of ground to cover. From fast-tracking stalled projects to establishing clear timelines for welfare disbursements, these cannot remain mere talking points — they must translate into measurable, time-bound policy action”, the leader added. “The party cannot shy away from this reality. We must steer the government toward a sharper focus on public grievances”.

The victory margin — over 11,077 votes for Shoukath — shows that decisive swings remain possible. The strong performance of independent Anvar underscores the growing appetite for issue-driven, non-partisan candidacies.

For the UDF, this means converting joy into action and votes into tangible progress. For the LDF, it means acknowledging anti-incumbency as a present danger, not a distant echo, and realigning governance to meet immediate citizen needs. And for all, it means recognising that no political fortress is impregnable when voter expectations remain unmet.

As Kerala marches toward its 2026 Assembly elections, the lessons of Nilambur will reverberate through party war rooms and grassroots meetings alike. The constituency’s verdict — this time marked by a three-cornered contest, anti-incumbency fervour, and the rise of independent challenge — serves as a clarion call.