Keralam power crisis: Congress blames El Niño and Left, but did VDS govt act in time?

Keralam’s power crisis is deepening, with frequent night-time power outages and load shedding continuing across the state. The disruptions have put the UDF government on the defensive, with the opposition and experts questioning whether timely intervention could have prevented the crisis.

Facing mounting complaints over unannounced outages, the government is putting in place a system to alert the public about power cuts at the feeder level. Power Minister Sunny Joseph said the system may not be 100 per cent accurate but would help consumers to some extent.

Also read: Kerala’s ‘editorial-style’ government ads spark bitter election-season row

“There were complaints from the public about unscheduled restrictions. It was due to the unexpected curbs from the regional load dispatch. We will take steps to inform the public and facilities will be put in place,” Joseph said.

CM blames high demand, El Nino, LDF

Chief Minister VD Satheesan has said the government is working to resolve the power crisis by September 15. The government attributes the shortage to a combination of unusually high electricity demand, hot and humid weather, the impact of El Nino and reduced power generation in several southern states. But the UDF has also revived the controversy over the long-term power purchase agreement signed by its previous government led by Oommen Chandy.

Satheesan says the agreement would have ensured power at around Rs 4.29 per unit and argues that its cancellation by the previous LDF government is one of the reasons Keralam is now struggling to meet demand.

“If the agreement had continued, this situation would not have arisen. The Congress-led government had taken that decision anticipating such a situation,” Satheesan said.

Why 2023 power deal was junked

He said Keralam is now being forced to buy electricity at much higher rates, with the price going up to around Rs 10 per unit. The availability of power from outside the state has also been affected by drought-like conditions and reduced generation in southern states, he said.

In fact, the long-term power purchase agreement was cancelled in 2023 after the Keralam State Electricity Regulatory Commission (KSERC) found procedural and technical lapses in the way it had been entered into.

Also read: Kerala's ‘Dark Days’: Blackouts ignite political storm amid World Cup match interruptions

The agreement signed during the UDF regime of 2011-2016 was for the purchase of 465 MW of electricity for 25 years at around ₹4.26 per unit. It subsequently came under scrutiny before the KSERC as serious flaws were flagged in the process. On May 10, 2023, the commission rejected Kerala State Electricity Board Limited (KSEB)’s petition seeking permission to continue procuring 465 MW from four power companies under the agreement.

KSEB and the state government, then led by Pinarayi Vijayan, opposed the cancellation and sought permission to continue drawing power from the companies as an interim arrangement until alternative sources could be secured. However, their efforts did not result in a favourable decision.

The dispute eventually reached the Appellate Tribunal for Electricity, which cancelled the power purchase agreement.

‘El Nino can’t be blamed’

However, the argument that the present crisis stems primarily from the cancellation of the agreement is being challenged. Dr M G Sureshkumar, a former KSEB official, points out that Keralam has faced similar conditions before, including during severe El Niño years.

“The fact that Keralam did not face such crises during the past 10 years was not because there was no El Niño or because there were no years with deficient rainfall.”

Also read: Undeclared power cuts trigger protests across Kerala

“Such situations have occurred before. El Niño was severe in both 2017 and 2023. In 2023, the rains began only in August. The crisis was therefore more severe then. But Keralam was able to overcome it through timely intervention,” Sureshkumar said.

According to him, the critical issue now is the timing of the government’s response.

Did govt act early enough?

“If the government had intervened when the crisis became clear at the end of May or the first week of June, some solutions could have been worked out. There was no intervention then. There is still no intervention,” he said.

The numbers underline the scale of the problem. Electricity consumption in Keralam touched 5,200 MW on Tuesday, compared with an average daily demand of 3,794 MW in September last year. This has created a shortfall of around 700 to 900 MW against the available supply capacity.

According to the KSEB data, Keralam currently generates around 1,650 MW of electricity internally. It receives another 1,500 MW as its central allocation, 630 MW through long-term contracts and around 100 MW through short-term contracts.

Also read: Power crisis in Kerala: Congress slams LDF govt over undeclared cuts

The immediate crisis has therefore put the UDF government in a difficult position. Its argument over the cancelled power purchase agreement may explain part of the present supply constraints, but questions are also being raised over whether the government acted early enough as demand began rising and the shortage became apparent.

LDF finds itself vindicated

The LDF, which made power security a significant part of its election campaign, now argues that the current situation vindicates its position on the controversial agreement. The same campaign had also presented the previous government’s record on uninterrupted power supply as one of its achievements.

With outages now becoming a regular feature in Keralam, the political debate over the agreement is back, but this time the UDF government has to answer for the immediate power shortage unfolding under its watch.