Ahead of 2026 poll, Amit Shah's Chennai visit may look to reshape NDA in TN

Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s arrival in Chennai tonight has the grapevine buzzing. After several electoral setbacks, the BJP has been looking to recalibrate its strategy and assert its presence in Tamil Nadu’s political landscape ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections.

The two-day trip promises a potent mix of high-stakes strategy, ideological grounding and alliance manoeuvring. Whether it increases the NDA's tally in the Tamil Nadu Assembly is left to be seen.

Scheduled meetings

With meetings scheduled with senior party leaders, RSS ideologue S Gurumurthy and whispers of overtures from AIADMK figures, the BJP views the visit as potential gamechanger.

Informed sources told The Federal that Shah will hold marathon sessions with Tamil Nadu BJP leaders to deliberate on critical issues, including the election of a new state party chief amid swirling speculation about K Annamalai’s future.

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Annamalai, the incumbent, has been a polarizing figure — credited with boosting the BJP’s visibility but blamed for straining ties with potential allies like the AIADMK. His recent statement that he is “not in the race” for the state president post has fuelled debate about whether Shah will nudge him aside or retain him with a redefined role.

AIADMK to meet Shah

The timing of Shah’s visit couldn’t be more charged. Tamil Nadu’s political scene is witnessing dramatic twists.

The ruling DMK has sharpened its attacks on the AIADMK, branding it as cozying up to Shah and the BJP, a narrative that could alienate minority voters — a key demographic in the state.

In a significant development, sources now confirm that AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) is likely to meet Shah on Friday in Chennai.

Watch | Did Annamalai become BJP's trump card to appease EPS?

This potential meeting, following EPS’s recent Delhi interaction with Shah, could prove decisive in solidifying a BJP-AIADMK alliance ahead of the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.

With EPS firmly in Chennai during Shah’s visit, the rendezvous — if it materialises — signals a thaw in relations between the two parties, which have danced around a formal tie-up since their 2021 split.

AIADMK rebels

Political observers see this as a pragmatic move by EPS to consolidate anti-DMK forces while offering Shah a critical breakthrough in his mission to unify the NDA in Tamil Nadu, though the terms of such an alliance remain a point of intense speculation.

Meanwhile, expelled AIADMK party figures like O Panneerselvam (OPS) and TTV Dhinakaran are also seeking an audience, highlighting the AIADMK’s internal divisions that Shah must navigate to forge a united NDA front.

Meanwhile, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), a former NDA ally, has thrown a curveball. In a surprising move, S Ramadoss sidelined his son Anbumani as PMK president, assuming the role himself, and naming Anbumani as working president.

Ramadoss Sr announced that alliance decisions would be deferred until the year-end, signalling that the PMK is not firmly in the NDA camp for now.

Political analysts view this as a calculated play to boost the PMK’s bargaining power with both the AIADMK and BJP, positioning the party to negotiate for more seats from whichever side offers the better deal. This development complicates Shah’s coalition-building efforts as the PMK’s Vanniyar vote bank remains a prized asset.

Shah and Gurumurthy

A key highlight of Shah’s visit is his scheduled meeting with S Gurumurthy, the influential RSS ideologue and editor of the Tamil political magazine Thuglak. This sit-down has sparked curiosity: why Gurumurthy, and what’s on his mind?

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Insiders say Shah seeks a neutral, seasoned perspective on stitching together a formidable NDA coalition in Tamil Nadu.

Annamalai has publicly resisted an AIADMK alliance, arguing that the BJP can go it alone with other partners. But most state leaders see a tie-up as essential to challenge the DMK’s dominance.

Karnataka model?

Gurumurthy, with his deep understanding of Dravidian politics, is likely to offer Shah a roadmap — balancing the BJP’s ambitions with the realities of coalition-building.

Sources reveal that Shah is keen to explore a dual strategy: aligning with EPS while keeping the door ajar for expelled AIADMK leaders like OPS, Sasikala and Dhinakaran, whose regional influence could bolster the NDA’s vote share.

Gurumurthy may propose a Karnataka-style model, with a separate NDA coordinator to manage alliance dynamics.

BJP leaders

Nainar Nagendran, a BJP MLA from Tirunelveli and a former AIADMK stalwart, is a frontrunner for this role — or even the state presidency. His ties to the Thevar community could broaden the BJP’s appeal in southern Tamil Nadu, though some warn that elevating him risks alienating the Nadar and Devendra Kula Vellalar communities in key regions like Vellore.

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Gurumurthy is also said to be batting for alternatives. One name in the mix is Anandhan Ayyasamy, a young Dalit leader from Thenkasi who could be a potential dark horse for the state chief post. Ayyasamy is said to be backed by Sridhar Vembu, the founder and former CEO of Zoho Corporation.

If Nainar ascends, the BJP might lose caste-based support elsewhere, prompting Gurumurthy to argue that Annamalai, despite his baggage, remains the best choice to lead the state unit while a coordinator smoothens alliance tensions.

Securing allies

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Tamil Nadu has already secured the support of several key regional players including K Krishnasamy of Puthiya Tamilagam, John Pandian of Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, GK Vasan of Tamil Maanila Congress, TR Pachamuthu of Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi, AC Shanmugam of Puthiya Needhi Katchi and the Puthiya Bharatham party.

This coalition reflects a deliberate caste combination strategy, aiming to consolidate diverse community votes — Krishnasamy and Shanmugam appeal to Dalit segments. However, the NDA’s efforts to broaden its base face uncertainty with the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and the PMK.

The DMDK, led by Premalatha Vijayakant, remains uncommitted after past flip-flops between the NDA and AIADMK while the PMK has deferred its alliance decision until year-end, leveraging its Vanniyar vote bank to negotiate with both the BJP and AIADMK. This indecision keeps Shah’s coalition-building plans on the edge during his Chennai visit.

Confident Shah

Shah’s visit underscores the BJP’s determination to crack Tamil Nadu, a state where it has historically struggled to gain a foothold. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections exposed the party’s limits -- its vote share rose to over 11 per cent but yielded no seats while the AIADMK, contesting solo, also faltered.

In contrast, the DMK-led alliance swept all 39 constituencies, highlighting the need for a united opposition.

Shah’s Chennai mission is clear: build a coalition that rallies anti-DMK votes while preserving the BJP’s long-term ambitions in Tamil Nadu. Whether this visit yields results or falls short will only become apparent by Friday night.