BJP vs AIADMK: Coalition clash ahead of 2026 TN polls | R Rangaraj interview

As Tamil Nadu gears up for the 2026 Assembly elections, tensions within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are surfacing. While BJP leaders assert their stake in a future government, the AIADMK maintains it will return to power on its own.

Political analyst R Rangaraj breaks down the growing friction between the two major NDA constituents—and what it could mean for the DMK and Tamil Nadu’s political landscape.

BJP’s Amit Shah has said that if the NDA wins Tamil Nadu in 2026, the BJP will be part of the government. But AIADMK’s Edappadi K Palaniswami insists his party will return with a clear majority on its own. What does this contradiction indicate?

It shows a basic conflict in electoral strategy and messaging. The BJP is working as part of its broader national agenda to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu—one of the few states, along with Kerala, where it has never tasted power. It's currently trying to ride piggyback on the AIADMK in hopes of securing at least a couple of ministerial portfolios if the NDA alliance forms government.

However, the BJP also wants to project the next administration as an NDA government, not solely an AIADMK-led one. This causes friction. The AIADMK, on the other hand, is aiming to showcase the elections as a solo comeback—framing itself as the only viable alternative to the DMK. It doesn't want a coalition and has no intention of sharing power with allies.

Historically, the AIADMK points to the failure of the 1980 DMK-Congress coalition to justify this stance, although the contexts differ. The BJP, meanwhile, is dangling promises of ministerial positions to smaller parties to broaden the NDA and portray itself as a central force. Ultimately, this is a battle of perception—AIADMK wants sole credit, while BJP wants shared control and visibility.

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Could this BJP-AIADMK friction benefit the DMK alliance?

Absolutely. The DMK-led alliance has clarity in its leadership and objectives. Despite the interest of allies like Congress or VCK in sharing power, the DMK has consistently signalled that it will form a government composed solely of its own ministers. That consistency gives them an edge.

In contrast, the NDA in Tamil Nadu is chaotic and unclear—even about basic matters like seat-sharing or government formation. There’s uncertainty about which parties are in the alliance and who will be given what. Old allies like the DMDK are confused, while others like the PMK are internally split. Some factions are even in touch with the DMK.

So while the DMK has a stable, long-standing alliance and a clear path forward, the NDA is fractured. This disarray could sway voters toward the DMK, especially those looking for a cohesive and predictable government.

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Will this uncertainty damage voter trust in the NDA alliance?

It almost certainly will. When voters see infighting within an alliance—like the AIADMK and BJP publicly contradicting each other—it signals instability. And when an alliance doesn’t even exist formally, but its leaders are already squabbling over power-sharing, it sends a poor message.

The election is still about nine months away, yet there’s no unity in strategy or even in messaging. This lack of coordination can have serious consequences in the electorate's perception. The DMK, by contrast, has been winning consistently since 2017, including local body polls, and appears as a stable and united front.

If the NDA continues to flounder publicly, it risks being seen as unprepared and unserious, which may turn away both voters and its own grassroots cadre.

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Given the social media buzz and internal confusion, how urgently does the AIADMK need to enter damage control?

Very urgently—but instead, the AIADMK seems to be in self-destruct mode. Even as the party insists it will form a government alone, it also talks of alliances and possible seat-sharing, which is contradictory. Why would a party confident of majority want to ally with weak partners and give away 50 or 60 seats?

There’s no clarity on whether minor parties will be given seats, or whether the BJP will get any say in seat-sharing. Even Amit Shah has announced tie-ups with two parties, but the AIADMK hasn’t begun any serious seat negotiations.

This uncertainty undermines campaign planning, alliance building, and public messaging. The party is neither discarding weaker allies nor solidifying a credible coalition. That ambivalence can be politically fatal in an election this competitive.

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How do you assess the contrasting alliance dynamics between the DMK and AIADMK camps?

The DMK alliance has a strong ideological and political glue: an unwavering anti-BJP stance. All partners—be it Congress, VCK, CPI, or others—are committed to this. Their alliance isn't merely strategic; it’s rooted in a shared secular, socialist vision. That gives it both ideological depth and electoral coherence.

The AIADMK-led alliance lacks such a unifying theme. The BJP is viewed with suspicion by some allies, and many are unsure whether their association with AIADMK or BJP is electorally beneficial. Some, like the DMDK and PMK, could switch sides if offered winnable seats by the DMK.

In contrast to the DMK’s steady, ideologically aligned coalition, the NDA in Tamil Nadu looks transactional and unstable. This difference may play a decisive role when voters choose between stability and confusion in 2026.

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