TN bypolls: Vijay wins both seats, but gets strong anti-incumbency message

The by-elections to the Dharapuram and Madurantakam Assembly seats of Tamil Nadu were billed as gauge of the performance of Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay’s five-month-old government.

They ended as a nail-biter in the western part of the s tate and a clearer verdict in the north – victories for the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), yet triumphs that leave the Dravidian parties still very much in the frame.

Sathyabama back in Dharapuram

In the Dharapuram (SC) seat in Tiruppur district, TVK’s P Sathyabama polled 66,841 votes (37.02 per cent), and won by a margin of 9,471 votes. DMK’s S Suganya finished second with 57,370 votes. AIADMK’s K Banumathi was pushed to the third with 45,280 votes (25.08 per cent). Naam Tamilar Katchi’s M Karthika won 5,268 (2.92 per cent) and the CPI’s P Lakshmanan 1,157 (0.64 per cent) votes.

Also read: How a bitter water war is at the centre of Dharapuram bypoll

Four months earlier, in the April general election, the Sathyabama had won the seat for the AIADMK with 81,100 votes (40.6 per cent). The DMK’s runner-up candidate had won 64,373 votes. She resigned, crossed to the TVK, and has now retained the constituency under a new symbol. The AIADMK, long described in Kongu country as able to win Dharapuram with its eyes closed, is third.

The counting itself supplied the drama. Postal ballots gave the TVK an early edge. Rounds three, four and five briefly put the AIADMK ahead. From the 11th round the field turned: the two-leaves symbol slipped to third and stayed there, while Sathyabama’s lead widened and held through the final rounds. Party managers at the Panaiyur headquarters marked the close with crackers. Local claims that residents of Chinnaputhur who had “besieged” Sathyabama during campaigning did not show up in the booth figures; TVK organisers say the party actually improved on its April tally in that pocket by about 1,200 votes.

Madurantakam triumph

In Madurantakam (SC) constituency in Chengalpattu district, TVK’s K Maragatham Kumaravel, who had also won the seat in April on an AIADMK ticket, led from the early rounds. In the April Assembly polls, Kumaravel had won by 69,284 votes (35 per cent) against a TVK runner-up (62,090 votes).

Election Commission figures show the whistle symbol to have amassed 64,578 votes with its candidate winning by a margin of 18,427 votes. DMK’s I Paranthamen, who came second won 46,151 votes while AIADMK’s S Kanithasampath won 40,731 votes.

Both seats the AIADMK treated as its fortresses in April now belong to the TVK, taking the ruling party’s Assembly strength rises to 109.

‘Kongu belt no longer AIADMK’s turf’

Reacting to the TVK’s win, Minister Vijay Balaji said it was a “clean” bypoll and the first that didn’t involve cash distribution. Balaji said the party that finished third in both seats in April has finished first in the by-elections “without distributing cash,”.

Also read: Madurantakam, Dharapuram bypolls: Why Anbumani’s ‘no one’ stand hits EPS hardest

Former AIADMK minister and now TVK leader KA Sengottaiyan said EPS must accept that the Kongu belt is no longer an AIADMK fortress and show the generosity to carry seniors with him. Former minister Isakki Subbaiah, who quit the AIADMK for the TVK after winning Ambasamudram, said cadres are unhappy with the present leadership and that third place has left them dispirited.

DMK 'happy' with second place

The Opposition’s reading is different. DMK spokesperson TKS Elangovan argued that votes the DMK received in April were deleted under the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, and that securing second place ahead of the party that won both seats months ago is itself a victory. He also attacked the government on the Mekedatu question and Mettur releases, saying the TVK “has done nothing on water resources.”

Senior journalist Suguna Diwakar noted that even with the advantages of office, a new alliance, a reported quiet understanding with the PMK, and Vijay’s roadshows, neither Dravidian party collapsed. A DMK–AIADMK combination, he argued, would still be formidable and that the “DMK–AIADMK are secretly allied” line pushed by the TVK did not land. He said, in Madurantakam, the DMK climbed from third in April to second without its old allies. In the Kongu belt, he added, EPS has held a sizeable base even without SP Velumani and Thangamani.

End of the road for AIADMK?

Political analyst Sanjeevi Sadagopan said the happiest people in the AIADMK tonight may be SP Velumani, C Ve Shanmugam and others who have been at odds with EPS: “AIADMK is going to see an implosion soon.”

Analyst Sumanth Raman was blunter: the TVK “will not sleep happy” because the margins are thinner than hoped; the DMK can be satisfied; for EPS “it is the end of the road” if the party is to survive.

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Madhavan Narayanan cautioned against writing the AIADMK off. Its vote share in both seats remained within reach of the DMK despite the loss of sitting MLAs, he said. This is evidence that EPS is still a force and a reason both the NDA and the INDIA Bloc may keep the party in play.

Has Vijay failed despite winning?

Dayalan Shanmugam argued that Vijay’s charisma, alliance strength and incumbency still could not deliver 50 per cent in either seat, and that both Dravidian parties saved their deposits. The Left, contesting alone, stayed inside a thousand votes in Dharapuram. He called the DMK’s second place in Dharapuram a substantial result for a party that no longer holds office, and said only the PMK’s abstention made Madurantakam winnable for the TVK, which, in his view, suggests expecting the PMK inside the ruling alliance soon.

Senior journalist Ilangovan Rajasekaran put the social arithmetic more sharply: in Madurantakam, Dalit consolidation and PMK abstention; in Dharapuram, a split among Kongu Vellalars and Arunthathiyar support. His red flags for the TVK were the absence of a sweep, a majority still reluctant, and the continued combined weight of the DMK and AIADMK.

Results not complete picture, say critics

The TVK government’s case, repeated since it took office, is that the old “party fund” culture in contracts and TASMAC outlets has been shut down, and that the chief minister has publicly told citizens to refuse bribes. Supporters say that the message, more than organisation, explains why voters who rejected the TVK in these two seats in April have now accepted the defectors. Critics answer that four months is too short a test, that by-elections reward the incumbent and the turncoat, and that a three-cornered fight in which the winner is under 40 per cent is not a mandate.

Also read: DMK accuses Vijay govt of 'imposing' Hindi, TVK hits back

What is no longer in dispute is the immediate arithmetic. Two AIADMK fortresses are gone. The DMK is second in both, ahead of the party that won them in April. The AIADMK is third, and the argument inside that party over EPS’s leadership already open after the general election, the defection of six MLAs, and the refusal of the Election Commission route to a quick change at the top, now has fresh numbers attached to it. The by-elections are over. The argument they were meant to settle is not.