Amit Shah's 'Chanakya Neeti' struggling in Tamil Nadu? | Talking Sense With Srini

As coalition negotiations gather pace ahead of Tamil Nadu’s next Assembly election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is confronting a political landscape that has proved stubbornly resistant to its usual alliance-building playbook, according to S Srinivasan, Editor-in-Chief of The Federal.

“One size fits all may be a good formula which the BJP wants to apply, but certainly it won’t work in Indian elections,” Srinivasan said on Talking Sense With Srini. “State by state, politics differ.”

Alliance arithmetic differs

Despite multiple visits by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, including recent stops in Tiruchirappalli and Pudukkottai, there has been little public movement towards a firm National Democratic Alliance (NDA) arrangement. Srinivasan said the lack of visible progress masks intense backroom negotiations, but also reflects growing frustration in New Delhi as the window for finalising alliances narrows.

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A central fault line lies in the BJP’s equation with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), still the largest Opposition force in the state. While the BJP has sought to replicate coalition models deployed in states such as Bihar, Srinivasan said Tamil Nadu presents a fundamentally different arithmetic. “The BJP has to accept that it is the tail of the alliance in Tamil Nadu, while the head is the AIADMK. That respect has to be given,” he said.

AIADMK risks erosion

AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami, Srinivasan added, faces limited room for manoeuvre. Any perception that he is bending excessively to accommodate the BJP could erode his standing among Tamil Nadu’s politically sensitive electorate, even as the AIADMK continues to command a vote share significantly larger than its national ally.

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The political churn has been intensified by the entry of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which Srinivasan described as an “X factor” unsettling both major alliances. He cited a recent survey that placed Chief Minister MK Stalin as the most preferred candidate for the state’s top post, but ranked Vijay second, ahead of Palaniswami. “That has sent shivers down the spine of the AIADMK,” Srinivasan said, while also signalling potential vote leakage from the DMK-led front.

Discontent among DMK partners

Although the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) currently heads the most stable coalition on paper, Srinivasan noted that discontent is brewing among its partners. The Congress and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi have openly demanded a larger share of seats and a stake in governance, arguing that prolonged dominance by the DMK has constrained their growth.

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With alliances on both sides still fluid and a new political player reshaping voter expectations, Srinivasan said Tamil Nadu is emerging as one of the BJP’s most complex challenges. Unlike other states where strategic patience has delivered eventual gains, he said, Tamil Nadu continues to defy easy solutions — forcing all parties to rethink long-held assumptions as the election clock ticks down.