The Karur tragedy has been a defining moment for Vijay, it has made the actor-turned politician more determined and anti-DMK
Will Rahul Gandhi ditch DMK for Vijay? | Talking Sense With Srini
With TVK back in action, the editor-in-chief analyses the shifting alignments in TN politics and new uncertainties surrounding the 'Vijay factor'
After a month-long hiatus following the Karur stampede that claimed 41 lives, actor Vijay’s Thamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has resumed full-fledged political activity, recalibrating Tamil Nadu’s pre-election equations.
In the latest episode of The Federal's YouTube program Talking Sense with Srini, The Federal’s Editor-in-Chief S Srinivasan analysed the shifting alignments and the new uncertainties surrounding the “Vijay factor.”
According to Srinivasan, the Karur tragedy has been a defining moment for Vijay, forcing the actor-turned-politician to shed his cautious stance and confront the political realities head-on. “He can no longer afford to be a casual politician — his reputation is at stake,” he said, suggesting that the incident has made Vijay more determined and openly anti-DMK.
However, the road ahead remains fraught. Vijay’s options for alliances are limited. Ties with the AIADMK are unlikely, given its continued alignment with the BJP, which would violate TVK’s proclaimed “equidistant” stance from both Dravidian majors.
Congress-Vijay combine?
A possible partnership with the Congress has generated buzz — especially since Vijay and Rahul Gandhi share cordial relations — but such a move would demand a break from the DMK-led alliance, a politically risky proposition.
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“Rahul Gandhi faces the tougher choice,” Srinivasan noted. “It’s easy for Vijay to decide, but difficult for Rahul, given the DMK’s pivotal role in the national Opposition front.” With DMK contributing significantly to the INDIA bloc’s parliamentary strength, a Congress-TVK alliance could upset national-level coordination.
'Untested' TVK
Vijay’s challenge, therefore, is not just about alliances but credibility. Despite his massive fan following, he remains “untested”, said Srinivasan. The last comparable case was actor Vijayakanth, who once captured nearly 10 per cent of the vote and briefly became Tamil Nadu’s Opposition leader.
Also read: TVK resumes activities post-Karur tragedy, charts political plan ahead of plans
“Vijay is a far bigger star, but whether he can convert fandom into votes is uncertain. For a breakthrough, he needs at least a 35–40 per cent vote share,” he added.
TN's political stage
Meanwhile, AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) faces his own struggles. Though he consolidated his control over the party after Jayalalithaa’s death, he has failed to expand beyond the BJP alliance or notch electoral victories since 2021. His leadership, Srinivasan observed, is being tested against internal dissent and waning mass appeal.
As for the ruling DMK, five years in office have triggered the usual undercurrents of anti-incumbency. “Chief Minister Stalin is treading more cautiously now,” said Srinivasan, pointing out that the DMK leadership is aware of having to confront not just the BJP-AIADMK combine but also a potentially disruptive third force led by Vijay.
Still, whether Vijay emerges as a kingmaker, a spoiler, or merely a passing political experiment will depend on how deftly he converts post-Karur sympathy and fan loyalty into structured political capital. For now, Tamil Nadu’s political stage has a new, unpredictable protagonist — and both Dravidian majors are watching closely.
