Stalin vs EPS: Who has the edge as they kick off 2026 poll campaign?

As the political temperature soars in Tamil Nadu ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, Chief Minister MK Stalin and Leader of Opposition Edappadi K Palaniswami have kicked off early campaigns. Adding to the mix is actor Vijay’s political plunge, stirring unprecedented interest. Political analyst TN Raghu breaks down what’s at stake and how the dynamics could unfold.

Both DMK and AIADMK have launched campaigns unusually early. What’s driving this?

It’s unprecedented, but Vijay’s entry is a key reason. His political plunge has injected excitement into the elections. The two main parties are trying to gain a first-mover advantage, as his presence has sparked interest among people who might not otherwise engage with politics.

Also read | Centre, BJP-AIADMK alliance trying to divide TN people in name of religion, caste: Stalin

How do you view the AIADMK-BJP alliance at this stage?

There’s no real chemistry between the AIADMK and the BJP. Palaniswami didn’t give a convincing reason to return to this alliance. AIADMK cadres believe the BJP aims to devour their party and see the partnership as unnatural. Unlike Congress, which had no major growth ambition in Tamil Nadu, the BJP wants to grow, creating tension.

What impact do you think Vijay’s political entry will have?

Vijay is in it for the long haul. Without him, these elections might not have generated such public interest. His presence has made politics a topic of everyday conversation and brought in people who typically stay away. He will definitely make a significant impact, especially as AIADMK faces an existential crisis if it fails to perform well.

EPS is banking on a revival of AIADMK’s fortunes, especially in western Tamil Nadu. How realistic is that?

He doesn’t seem supremely confident. The original plan may have been to form a grand alliance, possibly even with Vijay, but that didn’t materialise. Returning to the BJP alliance offers nothing new or exciting to voters.

Do you see any chance of Vijay aligning with AIADMK or BJP later?

No. If Vijay joins them, he loses his appeal as an alternative. His strength lies in positioning himself against the DMK, which traditionally helps a new party gain traction in Tamil Nadu. His silence on AIADMK’s past regime signals his attempt to lure their voters.

Vijay has been declared TVK’s CM candidate. Do you think 2026 is a test run for him ahead of 2031?

Absolutely. If he doesn’t win in 2026, he should focus on building the party and fighting for people’s issues to emerge as a credible force by 2031. Unlike MGR, Vijay lacks prior political experience, so it will be a tougher journey. But he has age, charisma, and purpose on his side.

Could Vijay lead a viable third front in 2026?

Unlikely. The DMK alliance is stable, and PMK or DMDK have limited options. A third front may gain traction based on Vijay’s 2026 performance, possibly ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.

Also read | EPS launches 2026 TN poll campaign in Coimbatore, takes DMK head on

Whose vote bank is Vijay likely to dent?

Vijay will tap into anti-incumbency votes against DMK and disillusioned AIADMK voters unhappy with their BJP tie-up. His strategy seems to be attracting AIADMK supporters without alienating them by attacking their past regime.

Is there a strong anti-incumbency wave against DMK, or will its welfare schemes offset that?

DMK works hard in Opposition, but AIADMK has often relied on anti-incumbency against DMK to return to power. Without a charismatic leader like Jayalalithaa, AIADMK faces challenges. Palaniswami projects confidence, but it’s a tough battle.

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