TN by-elections: Can Vijay’s TVK-led front capture AIADMK’s old strongholds?

The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam-led group of parties that came together after the 2026 Assembly election has been formally named as the Secular Social Justice VictoryAlliance (SSJVA).

Sources at Wednesday’s (September 9) meeting at the TVK headquarters in Panaiyur said the name was discussed along with a common programme based on secularism, social justice, and the Constitution.

Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay (TVK) chairs the front. Congress, VCK, MDMK, and IUML are part of it. The Left parties continue to give outside support. The partners say the arrangement will cover local body polls and future Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha elections as well.

By-elections on October 6

The meeting was held just as nominations open for the October 6 by-elections in Madurantakam and Dharapuram. Both seats became vacant when AIADMK MLAs Maragatham Kumaravel and P Sathyabama resigned and joined the TVK a few months after winning the April 2026 Assembly election. Polling is on October 6, counting on October 9. Both seats are reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates.

After the alliance was named, Congress leader Manickam Tagore told reporters that the list of candidates contesting on behalf of the alliance would be announced on Thursday (September 10).

Senior journalist Tharasu Shyam said forming an alliance before the by-elections is an important step for the TVK.

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“How Vijay holds the partners together will decide a lot,” he said. Party sources say TVK is expected to give tickets to Maragatham Kumaravel and Sathyabama, the same two who resigned their seats. Both have asked the leadership for the opportunity. These are the first by-elections for the three-month-old TVK government and its first real test with the voters.

DMK announces candidates

The DMK announced its candidates on Wednesday (September 9). I Paranthaman, a lawyer and joint secretary of the party’s legal wing, will contest from Madurantakam. S Suganya, also a lawyer and a local party worker from Dharapuram, will contest from there. He added that the DMK contesting both seats with its rising-sun symbol could lift the spirits of its workers.

Paranthaman said his party workers would deliver a clear win, and accused the new government of failing to keep its promises on prices and welfare schemes.

Four-way contest

AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami said his party would field its own candidates and win both seats. He accused the TVK of using “horse-trading” to create the vacancies. The party is talking to PMK, whose votes matter especially in Madurantakam. In earlier elections, PMK support helped the AIADMK hold the seat. AIADMK is also seeking backing from the BJP. The names being discussed reportedly include former MLA Kanitha Sampath for Madurantakam.

Naam Tamilar Katchi coordinator Seeman said he has been waiting eagerly for these by-elections and his party will field candidates. That makes it a four-way contest - TVK, AIADMK, DMK, and NTK.

Local issues

Madurantakam has never had a by-election before. AIADMK has won it seven times in its history. In the 2026 election, Maragatham Kumaravel won with 69,284 votes. TVK came second and DMK third. The seat has more women voters than men. Local issues include lake restoration, drinking water, bus services, and jobs for young people who now travel to Chennai for work.

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Dharapuram is seeing its first by-election since 1967. The seat has swung between DMK and AIADMK over the decades. In 2026, AIADMK’s Sathyabama won with 81,100 votes. DMK was second and TVK third. Farmers want better irrigation and water supply. Some local voices express unhappiness that Sathyabama switched parties so soon after winning.

DMK general secretary Durai Murugan rejected the idea that the ruling party always wins by-elections. “When MGR was in power, we still won Anna Nagar and Mayiladuthurai. It is not a fixed rule,” he said.

‘Public anger against DMK hasn’t faded’

Political observer Dayalan Shanmugam said the public anger against the DMK does not seem to have come down. Only if that anger fades will the TVK run into real trouble. Had the DMK stayed out of the contest, the AIADMK would have had a stronger chance. It is worth noting that under Edappadi Palaniswami, the party secured 40 per cent of the votes in Dharapuram.

If the PMK, widely seen as a Vanniyar party, continues its tie-up with the BJP and AIADMK, that front could grow stronger. Last time the TVK fought alone. This simple addition of 1+1=2 does not work in politics; an alliance can also split votes. With Thirumavalavan now inside the TVK camp, Shanmugam believes a new opening has appeared for the PMK to talk to the DMK.

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After the TVK government took office, Tamil Nadu politics has settled into a Dalit-plus-Christian versus OBC divide. Vijay has now declared the alliance secular, so soft Hindutva votes are unlikely to come his way, Shanmugam said.

Even at the height of his popularity in the last Assembly election, Vijay managed to obtain only 22 per cent of the votes in Dharapuram. If the DMK and AIADMK hold on to their traditional vote banks, Shanmugam asked, where will the extra votes for Vijay come from?

Tamil Nadu has seen 16 Assembly elections since Independence and more than 100 by-elections. Each by-election is treated as a mid-term report on the government in office. That is why the announcement of by-elections to even two seats immediately raises the temperature.

Past memorable by-elections

In 1973, the Dindigul Lok Sabha seat fell vacant. It was the first time the rising sun of the DMK faced the two leaves of the newly-formed AIADMK. MGR’s candidate Mayathevar won by more than 1 lakh votes. That result told everyone that the new party was here to stay.

In 1981, the Tirupattur Assembly seat needed a by-election after the Congress MLA died. MGR, then Chief Minister, decided not to field an AIADMK candidate and instead campaigned for the Congress nominee. DMK also backed the same candidate. The Congress candidate won by about 25,000 votes. It remains the only time AIADMK and DMK worked together for the same person.

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In 1989, after Jayalalithaa took full control of the AIADMK, by-elections in Marungapuri and Madurai East gave her two extra seats and helped her consolidate her position in the party.

In 1991, after DMK’s heavy defeat, Karunanidhi resigned his Harbour seat. By-elections in Harbour and Egmore both went to the DMK and gave the party some breathing space.

Must-win contests for everyone

Since 2001, the party in power, or its allies, has usually won by-elections. The big exception was 2017, when TTV Dhinakaran won in the RK Nagar constituency as an independent. This time, both the old Dravidian majors are out of office, the first such occasion in fifty years. TVK itself does not have a clear majority, and wants extra MLAs.

Only two seats are going to the polls now because court cases are blocking by-elections in the other vacant seats. That is why every party is treating these two contests as must-wins.

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The results in these two seats will show whether voters in constituencies that were AIADMK strongholds are ready to vote for the new ruling party or whether they will punish the candidates who switched loyalties and vote for one of the Dravidian majors. The next four weeks will decide the outcome.