Vijay goes all guns blazing against EPS; what does this mean? T Ramakrishnan explains

Actor-turned-politician Vijay not only targeted the DMK but also slammed the AIADMK and its alliance with the BJP during him Namakkal campaign. Speaking to The Federal, senior journalist T Ramakrishnan explained the political messaging, the significance of local issues he raised, and what this could mean for Vijay’s electoral prospects.

Vijay has usually targeted the DMK. But this time in Namakkal, he also criticized the AIADMK and its alliance with the BJP. How do you see this shift?

In his speech, he did not go easy on the DMK, but this time he also included the AIADMK and its alliance with the BJP in his attack. He referred to the BJP as his ideological adversary and described its alliance with the AIADMK as opportunistic.

This is significant because there had been criticism that he was silent on the AIADMK. His speech made it clear that he would not like to have any truck with the AIADMK or the AIADMK-BJP alliance. That has put to rest speculation that he might eventually join hands with them. The larger message is that Tamil Nadu could be heading towards a three-cornered contest: the DMK-led formation, the AIADMK-BJP alliance, and Vijay’s front.

Also read: ‘Vote for DMK is vote for BJP,’ Vijay says at Namakkal rally

AIADMK leaders, including Gautami, have spoken about welcoming Vijay into the NDA fold. Does his sharp attack mean those possibilities are now closed?

As of now, the message from his Namakkal speech is that he would not like to align with the AIADMK-BJP combine. He questioned what the BJP has done for Tamil Nadu and invoked Jayalalithaa, challenging her followers on what they have done to uphold her legacy.

He was critical, though not harsh, but the intent was clear: he would not spare them either. He even observed that voting for the DMK was like indirectly voting for the BJP, alleging covert coordination between the two. For now, all talk of Vijay joining the BJP-AIADMK alliance should be dismissed.

Do you think he is trying to tap into anti-BJP sentiment in Tamil Nadu by focusing on the AIADMK-BJP alliance?

That appears to be the case, but the benefits of anti-BJP sentiment are more likely to flow to the DMK-led alliance. Vijay may secure a small share of that segment, particularly among new voters or young people not inclined towards the BJP.

However, the larger question for voters is electability. Those who want to ensure the defeat of the AIADMK-BJP alliance are more likely to back the DMK-led coalition, which is seen as having greater winnability. Vijay may gain some traction, but it will not be enough to outpace the DMK in this space.

Also read: Madras HC notice to TVK chief Vijay over party flag

In Namakkal, Vijay raised the issue of the kidney sales racket and linked it to his promise of strong governance. How do you assess his focus on such civic issues?

I am glad he raised this issue. Until now, he often spoke in generalities or abstract terms. This was the first time he took up a specific problem of importance not only to Namakkal but also to the rest of the state.

The recurring nature of such scandals, despite Tamil Nadu’s strong healthcare infrastructure, makes it a pressing issue. His decision to highlight it is welcome. Whether it translates into electoral gains remains to be seen, but he should continue to focus on such substantive issues rather than abstract criticism of the DMK.

Earlier you had compared Vijay’s electoral prospects to Vijayakanth’s early years. Has his performance so far changed your assessment?

It is still too early, but my estimate is that even if Vijay continues to raise substantive issues, his vote share will be around 10 to 12 per cent at best. That is slightly better than Vijayakanth’s performance of 8.33 per cent in the 2006 Assembly election and 10.11 per cent in the 2009 Lok Sabha election.

With around 4.5 crore people expected to vote, even 10 per cent would mean nearly 45 lakh votes, which is not insignificant for a first-time entrant. However, his rise will hurt the AIADMK more than the DMK. At this stage, I would place his maximum possible share at 12 per cent, though it could be less.

Also read: Why BJP leader Vinoj Selvam thinks Vijay's TVK has a ‘Naxal mindset’

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