Why top leaders across parties are making a beeline for Saurashtra

September has been a month to remember for Gujarat’s Saurashtra, with the crème de la crème of Indian politics — including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Congress leaders Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, and AAP leaders Arvind Kejriwal and Sanjay Singh — making a beeline for the region one after the other.

While Modi participated in the ‘Samudra se Samriddhi’ event in Bhavnagar and inaugurated or laid the foundation stone of development projects worth over Rs 34,200 crore, Shah made a two-day visit to Gujarat that concluded on Wednesday (September 24), attending several public programmes and inaugurating a startup conclave. His visit included engagements in Gandhinagar, Surat, and Rajkot.

The Congress held a 10-day training camp for district presidents in Junagadh, with Kharge and Rahul Gandhi making appearances. Kejriwal, on the other hand, was in Gujarat earlier this month on a political tour. During this visit, he attended a rally in Chotila, Rajkot, on September 9, where he addressed cotton farmers’ issues.

Significance of Saurashtra

So, what is the reason behind this heightened political spotlight on Saurashtra?

First of all, it is no ordinary region. Flanked by the Arabian Sea on one side and Gir forest on the other, the region—comprising Rajkot, Junagadh, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Bhavnagar, Amreli, Gir Somnath, Devbhumi Dwarka, Morbi, Surendranagar, and Botad—has always been central to Gujarat’s politics.

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In fact, its significance in Gujarat polls is often likened to that of Uttar Pradesh in national elections. The region houses 48 of the state’s 182 assembly seats (26 per cent) and six of its 26 Lok Sabha seats (nearly a fourth). At the same time, it influences south Gujarat, where many Patidars from the region have migrated.

Shifting political equations

But the more specific reason behind the renewed focus on Saurashtra is that the region is undergoing a political churn. In the 2022 assembly polls, the BJP swept Saurashtra, winning 40 of the 48 seats, while Congress slumped to just three, its lowest tally in what was once its stronghold.

The AAP, on the other hand, made its debut in the assembly with five MLAs, four of them from Saurashtra.

Soon after, however, AAP’s Visavadar MLA Bhupendra Bhayani defected to the BJP, forcing a bypoll. AAP’s Patidar leader Gopal Italia reclaimed the seat, signalling a fresh churn among the Patidar youth.

“This win was a prestige battle after the BJP poached our MLA. Since then, we have kept the momentum alive in Saurashtra through foot marches and local meetings, particularly raising the issues of the flood-prone Ghed region,” said Isudan Gadvi, AAP’s Gujarat president.

“Ghed is a low-lying part of Saurashtra in Junagadh and Porbandar districts that gets submerged every year due to rain. Congress was strong in this region for years but never took up the issue of Ghed. The movement gave AAP an inroad into Junagadh and Porbandar. For the past three months, we have conducted one mass meeting in every taluka and district panchayat of Saurashtra to build our support base from the ground,” added Gadvi.

He said Italia’s entry in Saurashtra had energised Patidar youth. “He has had a huge impact. He is a Patel leader who consistently stood up against the BJP when MLAs across caste lines joined the saffron party for greener pastures. His integrity made the AAP popular amongst the Patidar youth in Saurashtra,” said Gadhvi.

BJP faces trouble

The BJP, on the other hand, faces infighting and discontent in Saurashtra despite its sweeping victory in 2022. And that is mostly because of its Congress imports.

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In Amreli, a rift between former MP Naran Kachhadia and sitting MLA Kaushik Vekariya spilled into the open earlier this year, prompting an intervention by state party chief CR Patil and Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel.

In Junagadh’s Manavadar, BJP MLA Arvind Ladani—formerly with the Congress—faced mass protests over alleged shielding of gambling operators. Party leaders admitted they had asked him to lie low after anger escalated.

Complaints have poured in against at least 50 BJP MLAs from Saurashtra, many of them Congress defectors. A senior party leader acknowledged: “Their indiscipline has hurt us, even though their entry helped us win seats.”

In Surendranagar’s Dhrangadhra, MLA Prakash Varmora had to cut short an official visit after locals stormed the BJP office over unresolved civic issues.

Patidar-Ahir turf war

Meanwhile, speculation swirls around Jawahar Chavda, a former Congress MLA-turned-BJP leader, after 150 of his supporters joined the AAP. A turf war between Chavda, an OBC Ahir leader, and Patidar MLA Arvind Ladani has split the BJP’s base in Manavadar.

“Manavadar was once a Congress stronghold, and Chavda, an Ahir (OBC) leader, had a strong foothold in the constituency. Arvind Ladani, a Patidar leader, used to be his close aide back then,” said Ghanshyam Shah, a political analyst based in Ahmedabad.

“Owing to the Patidar and OBC leaderships, the Congress retained the seat from 1990 to 2017. Later, both Ladani and Chavda joined the BJP, and the Congress lost the seat. Eventually, the political ambitions of both the leaders created a rift between them. BJP, which is known for its discipline, is now dealing with a Patidar-Ahir turf war in Manavadar between its two leaders,” he explained.

Shah feels it is difficult for the Congress to cultivate a new leadership in Manavadar. “The AAP has been aggressively highlighting issues like the lack of civic amenities, floods, and agrarian distress in the area. The entry of AAP has changed the political dynamics of Saurashtra, which, barring a few districts, has largely remained underdeveloped,” he added.

Congress seeks revival

Nevertheless, chastised by the drubbing in 2022, the Congress has begun a revival exercise centred on Saurashtra. It recently held a 10-day training camp for district presidents in Junagadh, with Kharge and Rahul Gandhi making appearances.

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“We have lost Saurashtra inch by inch since 2019. Our aim is to rebuild from the grassroots through the upcoming local body polls,” said a district president.

Party chief Amit Chavda confirmed the plan: “The first phase of revival through district appointments is done. After Navratri, we will expand offices and cadre networks across Saurashtra.”

Until 2017, the Saurashtra region, which is predominantly rural, was a Congress stronghold. OBC groups such as Kolis, Ahirs, and Darbars formed the Congress’s base in the region, but by 2019, most local leaders had defected to BJP, hollowing out its organisation.

“With the training of the newly appointed district presidents, the first phase of our revival plan is done. Next, we build our cadre base on grassroot level with district presidents tasked with building units in each taluka. After the Navratri festivals, we will also open multiple offices across Saurashtra and begin our grassroot outreach programme,” said Amit Chavda, the GPCC President.

The Patidar factor

A major factor in this political equation is jobless Patidar youth. For long, youths from Saurashtra have migrated to Surat’s diamond industry, both as workers and owners. Today, many are returning home after widespread layoffs and wage cuts.

Earlier this year, the Kodhaldham Samiti, an Ahmedabad-based organisation of pro-BJP Patidars, organised a ‘Sardar Samman Yatra’ from Saurashtra to south Gujarat. But anger against the saffron party is high among Patidar youth.

“It is not just the diamond workers, most of the diamond unit owners are also Leuva Patidars (a subcaste) from Saurashtra. As a result, of the 12 constituencies in Surat, six are dominated by Patidar migrants from Saurashtra. There is a lot of anger against the BJP government amongst these men who lost their jobs but did not get any financial aid even when the government announced a relief package for the diamond sector,” said Dr Kanubhai Kalsaraiya, a former BJP MLA from Bhavnagar who quit the party.

He added that the unrest is feeding the AAP’s growth: “Many Patidar youths still feel betrayed since the 2015 reservation agitation. Italia is the only leader who met them directly, which is why they are gravitating towards the AAP.”