How Maha Kumbh can change Yogi Adityanath’s political fortunes

Amid chants of ‘Har Har Mahadev’, it is estimated over 80 lakh devotees took a dip at the Triveni Sangam on Mahashivratri as the 45-day Mahakumbh — a mega religious gathering that takes place once in 12 years — inched towards its end.

The 45 days of the mega spiritual carnival that commenced on January 13 (Paush Purnima) saw grand processions of Naga Sadhus and three Amrit Snans. As per official figures, over 65 crore devotees visited this year’s Kumbh in Prayagraj. The conclusion of the event is now broadly being perceived as a grand success with UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath being seen as its key architect. The stampede, whose toll remains contested, has been pushed into oblivion like it never happened as accolades over the Mahakumbh culmination are being shared.

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With the event done, many are now turning to take stock of the political implications of holding the religious and spiritual event 'successfully' for Yogi Adityanath.

The Kumbh (mis)management

The stampede that happened on January 29 remains a huge blot on the administrations claims of perfect arrangements. With the official death toll standing at 30 and the tally of those injured at 60, questions have been raised over the Yogi administrations folly in inviting crores. Even before Kumbh began, Yogi had claimed that while 40 crore are expected to visit, the administration has made arrangements for 100 crore people.

Former Chief Minister and Samajwadi Party supremo Akhilesh Yadav has been blunt in his criticism of the Yogi government. Speaking in Lok Sabha, Yadav claimed earth movers and tractor trollies had been used to clear away the bodies. He demanded that the correct figures be presented in Parliament. Yadav found support in West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who dubbed the Mahakumbh Mela as ‘Mrityu Kumbh’ (Kumbh of deaths).

The site where the stampede happened on January 29.

If the opposition’s criticism wasn’t enough, a report of the Central Pollution Control Board, which works under the Union Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change and the autonomous National Green Tribunal said there was fecal matter in the water in which devotees were taking a dip.

The Mahakumbh mismanagement was not just evident in the deaths in Prayagraj but also over 600 kilometres away in the national capital of Delhi, where close to 18 people died in a stampede trying to boards trains going to Praygraj on February 15. Former Bihar Chief Minister Lalu Yadav, who also held charge of the Ministry of Railways, during the UPA era, sought accountability from Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnav.

Yogi, incensed at this criticism, retaliated by saying “vultures go after dead bodies” and “pigs go after the filth”.

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Weary of antagonizing Hindu votes, the Congress’ criticism of Kumbh management was somewhat muted. Both Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi limited their criticism to their speeches during the discussion in Parliament. They did not meet the stampede victims. Many second-rung leaders of the Congress like Jairam Ramesh and Rashid Alvi, however, were openly critical of the Kumbh mismanagement and put the blame squarely at the door of Yogi Adityanath.

Modi-Shah vs Yogi

Even though political criticism over the mismanagement was harsh, the public sentiment considers the Kumbh to be a success. The question, however, is will the political mileage derived by Yogi due to his successful Mahakumbh deepen the chasm between him and the Shah-Modi duo within the BJP, or will it prolong the undeclared truce that prevailed between the two sides for the last one year?

In fact, after the poor showing of the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in UP, there were rumours that Yogi would be dislodged as CM by the BJP’s central leadership. They even propped up Keshav Prasad Maurya as the OBC face of the BJP in UP and as the potential alternative to Yogi. The central leaders even constituted a review team which reportedly met nearly 100 BJP MLAs and district leaders in the state. In their depositions before the committee, Yogi’s acolytes reportedly blamed the wrong choice of candidates, but the defeated candidates reportedly blamed Yogi for non-cooperation.

It wasn’t just the party, the local units of the RSS also refrained from doing electoral ground work as actively as they used to in order to send a warning to the BJP leadership both in the state as well as the Centre.

Once the RSS realised that Yogi was becoming a hot-potato, they tried to distance themselves from him. RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat, during his visit to Yogi’s political home district Gorakhpur in June 2024, to address a RSS cadre meeting, did not meet Yogi despite the CM waiting for two days to meet him. This was read as a clear signal from the RSS that it won’t take sides in the political turf war between Modi-Shah and Yogi.

On the party front, the findings of the review committee were never published. No visibly significant follow-up action was taken for an organisational re-jig. In the larger mutual interest, both sides apparently entered into a truce and opted to preserve the status quo. Disturbed by the overall decline in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll performance and facing assembly polls in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi, Modi-Shah decided not to upset the applecart by further undercutting Yogi and fueling dissidence against him.

Also read | What led to the tragedy? Witnesses, railways offer differing versions

“The contention between Modi-Amit Shah and Yogi is overblown. Amit Shah doesn’t have much of a direct role into UP politics now and he has receded to the background. Modi and Yogi do not want to upset each other’s applecart. Modi would see no point in rocking Yogi’s boat in UP and Yogi is not so immature to antagonize and confront Modi now when the question of an alternative to Modi doesn’t arise. But he would cleverly continue to enhance his own profile,” Zafar Bakht, a prominent civil society personality and political commentator, told The Federal when asked if the truce is temporary or one for years.

Kamal Krishna Roy, prominent Congress leader and a human rights campaigner, differs with Bakht. “The impression that Yogi has prime ministerial ambition and was positioning himself as the alternative to Modi was not just a media creation. Whether he was personally nurturing greater political ambitions hardly mattered. By being the main architect of the slogans ‘Batenge toh Katenge‘ (If we stand divided, we would be minced) and ‘Ek hai toh safe hai’ (United, we stand safe) even in the context of Maharashtra and Delhi elections, Yogi is coming into greater prominence in the all-India saffron politics. Objectively he is emerging as major pole. This is bound to alter, if not unravel, the political equations,” Roy said.

“Yogi is riding on a Hindu upsurge which he himself consciously promoted with a design. Yogi is now pitting Sanatan (Hindu orthodoxy) against Samvidhan (Constitution). His orthodox Hindu constituency has pinned high hopes on him. His supporters are already saying openly that ‘Modi ke baad, Yogi hi pradhan mantra banenge’ (After Modi, Yogi will be the PM). He has now unified all the Akhadas (a kind of Hindu monastic orders numbering 13, four of which are based in Prayagraj) by giving them a greater role in conducting the Kumbh and enjoys their support,” Roy added.

The Akhadas agree with Roy’s assessement.

“Yogi has taken Hindus to unprecedented heights through the grandeur of Kumbh. He will further take them forward. All Hindus all over the country are now with him. He will even become the Prime Minister. Rather, he should become the Prime Minister,” said Mahant Shankaranand Saraswati, the chief of the Sha Darshan Akhara Parishad.

Will the RSS have Yogi’s back

Kamal Krishna Roy points to the fact that the RSS circles in Prayagraj are rife with the speculation that BJP’s ideological arm might promote Modi’s traditional detractor Sanjay Joshi for a more prominent role in the BJP and even speculate that he might be made the BJP President.

This in the backdrop of Mohan Bhagwat, Indresh Kumar and Dattatreya Hosabale, all three prominent leaders of the RSS, coming out in criticism of Modi albeit without referring to him by name, could mean advantage Yogi.

The same RSS leaders have never uttered a word against Yogi. An RSS functionary, while refusing to confirm or deny Sanjay Joshi’s name, however asserts only someone proposed by the RSS can now become the President in the BJP.

Kumbh—A cross-class carnival

About the social dimension of this Hindu political metamorphosis, Zafar Bakht says, “Kumbh this time became the carnival of the poor. Rustic women in their tens of thousands, dressed in cheap but garishly red or pink synthetic nylon sarees glittering with chamki and zari works were walking up and down 40 kms from the Railway Station to Sangam mostly barefoot and only a few among them were wearing cheap Hawaii chappals. None of them was wearing a costly cotton saree. At the same time, well-dressed middle-class peasant or small-town women also thronged the Sangam.”

This cross-section appeal for Mahakumbh has put the spotlight on Yogi.

“The Mahakumbh has certainly benefited Yogi and now Amit Shah will not dare to disturb him. Women and poor people have been overawed with the arrangements. But whether this impact will last till 2027 remains to be seen,” said Dharmaraj Patel, an ex MP of Samajwadi Party from neighbouring Phulpur.

Concurring with these views, Ramadhin Singh, leader of Baudhik Prakoshth (Intellectuals Cell) of the BJP said, “The impact of the Mahakumbh has been massive. All the previous images of Yogi—that of a local Gorakhpur Mahant, the encounter specialist CM, or communal hardliner—have faded into the background. Mahakumbh has made him the undisputed leader of the Hindus. He also reduced price of bus tickets to and from Prayagraj by 10%. People were happy with this. Also, Amit Shah’s selection of candidates for the Lok Sabha backfired. All candidates handpicked by him lost. So, Modi knows that Yogi commands authority in Purvanchal.”

Will the Kumbh Mela propel Yogi Adityanath’s political rise with BJP and beyond Uttar Pradesh is a story that will unfold with time, but what is clear for now is that the deaths have been forgotten. What people remember is the grandeur of the 45-day-long Mahakumbh.