What challenges stand before Modi government in carrying out Caste Census

On April 30, Union Minister for Information and Broadcasting Ashwini Vaishnaw, was giving his usual presentation post the Cabinet meeting, when he suddenly announced that the national Census would include caste enumeration. The decision and its timing left many surprised. Following the April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack, in which 26 civilians lost their lives, the government had upped the ante against Pakistan, promising action even before such a demand came from public. Television news channels too were turning the heat on Pakistan. Given how whipped up nationalism works in favour of the BJP, it is surprising the Modi government chose to risk shifting the country’s focus to caste enumeration.

The Congress, meanwhile, rushed to claim credit, emphasizing the Census must follow the ‘Telangana model’ in methodology and rigour, should have a clear timeline and roadmap; and must not merely be a data collection exercise, but one aimed at bridging social divides.

Effective caste census format

“Even since enumeration of castes other than SCs and STs was discontinued in 1951, no objective criteria for either the enumeration of other castes or their backwardness has existed and this has been a long-standing policy requirement as well as a requirement of courts whenever a case for extension of reservation has been made,” says political scientist Ravi Srivastava, who teaches at JNU.

“In the absence of a caste-based census, surveys by states, commissions and national agencies such as the National Statistical Organisation have filled this gap. But these surveys either do not provide data at a granular level or have not followed a scientific methodology. The relationship between caste hierarchies and benefits from the growth/development process are acknowledged to be strong. There was a clamour for a caste census which would also collect data on socio-economic characteristics of households during the UPA regime. Although such a census was not carried out, the central government carried out a parallel exercise of a Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) in 2011. The results of the survey were used to allocate funds to states as per the Gadgil formula and also for targeting beneficiary households under various schemes, such as housing and the PDS. Methodologically, although the SECC was carefully designed and data was collected for a limited number of objectively verifiable indicators, the results were not considered robust enough to be released in the public domain.

“Subsequently, caste surveys/censuses have been carried out in several non-BJP ruled states. These include Bihar, Karnataka, and Telangana. The Telangana survey is the most ambitious among these and data has been collected on a large number of indicators. With the central government now accepting the demand for a caste-based census with Bihar elections around the corner, the devil still lies in the detail. The design of such a census is important… The population census, through the house-list and the household questionnaire, already collects data on a number of demographic and socio-economic variables. These include housing and amenities status, employment and occupation, educational profile, and migration status. To this, questions regarding self-ascribed social group and sub-group status (across religions) will need to be added, along with existing administrative categorisations of households (SC/ST, OBC in central or state list, MBC/EBC etc.). Ideally, the design of the next census questionnaire should be decided by an expert group of social science researchers and policy administrators.

“Given that social identities are so closely intertwined with development outcomes and policies, enumeration of caste/social groups should be a positive step but design and implementation issues in the upcoming census will still determine the utility of the data that it generates,” Srivastava explained.

Making it count

Many believe the Modi government’s announcement was made with Bihar on mind. But what about Uttar Pradesh? How will the Census impact India’s most populous state that sends the maximum number of MPs to the Lok Sabha?

“Once Caste Census is in place, the 50% ceiling for reservation laid down by the Supreme Court would become untenable. The ceiling has to go altogether. Second, the Caste Census should also cover minorities like Muslims and Christians so that it can bring out the real status of downtrodden sections like Pasmanda Muslims and Dalit Christians etc, so that the rationale for extending reservation to these sections would also get strengthened,” said Kamal Krishna Roy, a noted Congress leader and lawyer-activist in Prayagraj.

It isn’t the data, but how the data is used which is important.

“How the benefits of this caste census will reach the people will depend on how parties take it to the grassroots level. It will demand a lot of struggle and consistent work to get policies made for development of these still-lagging sections and get them implemented,” says Samajwadi Party leader Awadhesh Anand.

But given the complexities, some believe the government won’t be able to carry out the exercise.

“Let them first pass the resolution in the Parliament. There will be severe debate like on the Hindu Code Bill, which even Ambedkar and Nehru failed to get passed due to opposition from conservative MPs in all parties. Also, we have to still see whether the BJP is serious about it or is using it to divert people's attention from failure on several fronts,” Bahujan Samaj Party leader Deepchandra Gautam.

Mere enumeration not enough

“The BJP wants to make the OBCs happy and seeks to win them over. Caste census figured as an election issue here in UP even in the last Lok Sabha polls and gave some electoral dividend to the India bloc but the BJP was opposed to it. Now, they have made a volte-face. But a mere caste census cannot improve the conditions of the OBCs as mere enumeration and availability of data are not enough. Take the example of SCs and STs who are already being enumerated in the normal censuses. Some very limited socio-economic data like housing conditions and household assets are also ascertained in these censuses. Do these data govern the developmental policies of the governments, the goals, targets and funds allocation,” SR Darapuri, former Inspector General of Police in UP and a prominent champion of Dalit issues, told The Federal.

“Unless developmental parametres like landlessness, access to capital, education, health, employment and skills and share in political structures are ascertained for different OBCs, there would be no social and political empowerment at the grassroots. Mere caste census is not sufficient. When from education to healthcare…everything is getting privatised, the OBCs cannot gain by mere reshuffle in quota. Development policies should change,” he added.

It is said the BJP took the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh into confidence before going ahead with the move.

“There is already speculation in the Hindi media that RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat is against political use of caste census but was willing to consider only its limited social use, whatever it means. So, they might narrow down the scope of the caste census,” a senior government official in Prayagraj said on the condition of anonymity.

Meanwhile, Rooprekha Verma, former University of Lucknow vice-chancellor told The Federal that she was not apprehensive that the BJP could make political capital out of caste census. “The video of Rahul Gandhi shouting out loud in Parliament that he would see to it that Caste Census would be implemented is viral... all except the extreme blind bhakts understand that Modi has been squarely caught on Pahalgam and so he is trying to do some firefighting through this caste census announcement when he has been forced to admit in the all-party meet that Pahalgam was a security lapse.”

“I hope the think-tanks of Congress and SP will come together and do a lot of homework. The details about sub-castes have to be worked out. Not only that, they will have to fight for each provision in the census format within and outside Parliament lest the BJP reduces it to a superficial exercise. We activists too should start working on what should be the mode of Caste Census from now on,” she says.

The categorization, however, won’t be an easy task.

“There is wide disparity among Other Backward Castes themselves which has been brought out well by the Rohini Commission appointed by the Modi government in 2017 to ensure a more equitable distribution of reservation benefits among the OBCs in India., which however was seen by some OBC activists as an attempt to divide the group. Due to this internal disparity, there have been demands for ‘reservation within reservation’ as in the case of Vanniyars in Tamil Nadu,” said an Allahabad University professor on the condition of anonymity.

“Once the Caste Census findings are out, numerous demands by individual castes for proportional representation would be triggered. Individual caste-wise quotas cannot be fixed as the number of castes runs into hundreds. Rohini Commission recommended grouping of 3000 OBC castes into four broad categories. One way out after the caste census is to retain the existing broad categories but re-fix the quotas based on collective numerical representation in that category. Then there are chances that some castes and sections of individual castes would still be marginalized. This can be remedied to some extent through the appropriate design of the caste census format itself. Presently, reservation is earmarked for OBCs only in education and government jobs. Development assistance devolves to individuals and households irrespective of caste background, though certain proportion is earmarked for Dalits and BPL categories. The delivery should be rejigged in such a manner that more backward a caste greater assistance should flow to that.”

The wide apprehensions that a Caste Census would open up a Pandora’s Box are misplaced. As hope used to lie at the bottom of the Pandora’s Box, something good might also come out of this churning.