Discussion | India-Pakistan ceasefire: Trump takes credit, yet again

As tensions cooled between India and Pakistan following Operation Sindoor, US President Donald Trump made headlines by claiming he was the key peacemaker behind the ceasefire, crediting trade deals as his diplomatic tool. But India’s Ministry of External Affairs has contradicted these assertions, denying that trade was ever discussed. On Capital Beat, Neelu Vyas speaks with Dr. Aftab Kamal Pasha, The Federal's Managing Editor K S Dakshina Murthy, and Prof. Mohsin Raza Khan to unpack the deeper geopolitical stakes and evaluate India’s diplomatic posture under Modi.

Q: Donald Trump claimed credit for brokering the ceasefire between India and Pakistan using trade. Is this plausible?

Dr. Aftab Kamal Pasha: Trump has a long history of making outlandish statements and seizing opportunities to position himself as a peacemaker. During his campaign in 2024, he made bold promises, like solving the Ukraine crisis or bringing peace to Gaza before even taking office. While he did pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and a ceasefire was briefly achieved, it collapsed quickly.

Now, with South Asia, Trump is again bragging, despite there being little clarity on what actually happened on the ground. We don’t know if Pakistan pushed the panic button or if it was one of its allies — Turkey, UAE, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia — who influenced the ceasefire. All these countries maintain military links with Pakistan and receive US arms, trained by Pakistanis. The common thread is America.

Trump’s remarks are classic carrot-and-stick talk of dinner diplomacy and trade in the same breath as nuclear deterrence. But what’s worrying is India’s silence. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who publicly displayed warmth towards Trump earlier this year, now finds himself in a tough spot. The MEA insists trade wasn’t discussed, yet Trump claims otherwise.

Also read: Why India objected to IMF loan for Pak, and why the objections made no difference

Q: Could Trump’s strategy be seen as blackmail, as suggested by General Moniz on social media?

Dr. Kamal Pasha: It’s possible. Trump is transactional. He’s treating strategic issues with a businessman’s mindset. India’s deepening ties with the US, and Modi’s emphasis on trade and global stature have made us susceptible to such pressure tactics.

Q: Why do you think Trump repeatedly brings up trade in connection with the ceasefire?

K S Dakshina Murthy: The real issue here is that the US played a role in the ceasefire — trade is a distraction. Trump emphasises trade because he views it as a powerful geopolitical tool. Remember how he disrupted global norms with reciprocal tariffs and made leaders across the world respond to his economic pressure?

Trade, for Trump, is not just economics — it’s leverage. So even if trade wasn’t part of the ceasefire conversations, in his mind, it’s the centerpiece of diplomacy. Whether it's India or any other nation, he sees trade as the instrument through which peace or pressure is achieved.

Also read: Trump says he convinced India, Pak to ‘let’s have peace, go make trade deals’

Q: Is Trump trying to use India and Pakistan as pawns in his larger game with China?

Prof. Raza Khan: Absolutely. Trump has a bully’s mindset — he goes after those he thinks are weaker. He wants a Nobel Peace Prize, having failed on bigger fronts like Ukraine and Israel-Gaza. He sees the India-Pakistan ceasefire as low-hanging fruit.

But let’s be clear — neither India nor Pakistan really wanted a full-blown war. After India launched Operation Sindoor, it signalled a desire to de-escalate. Pakistan, after its response, was ready for peace by afternoon. The US didn’t orchestrate this; Trump is just taking credit.

Also read: Trump: US stopped India-Pakistan 'nuclear conflict', will do 'lot of trade' with them

India hasn’t contradicted him because Trump knows Modi won’t. Just look at Modi’s body language in their meetings. India isn’t pushing back on China either, despite its aggression in Arunachal Pradesh. Trump is exploiting this diplomatic passivity.

Q: How should Modi deal with Trump’s provocations without damaging bilateral ties?

Dr. Kamal Pasha: Modi’s visit to the White House in February was a turning point. Since then, the US seems to be dictating terms, from trade to Pakistan. India is now in a position where challenging Trump seems unlikely. Modi wants to project control at home, but externally, the government is overawed by American power.

We’ve placed all our eggs in the US basket, hoping it will counterbalance China and Pakistan. But now, America is using that dependence to its advantage. Trump is a businessman who sees even ceasefires as commodities. That’s why he talks of tariffs and weapon sales in the same breath.

Q: Has Trump pushed diplomacy to the edge with this transactional approach?

Dakshina Murthy: That’s an understatement. Trump’s unpredictability has shaken not just the world but also the US itself. From forced deportations to firing federal employees, his actions have destabilised institutions.

Internationally, his treatment of leaders like Volodymyr Zelenskyy was humiliating. He’s not afraid to subvert democratic norms, as we saw during the Capitol Hill attack. With nearly four years still ahead, we should brace for more chaos.

Q: Should India push back against Trump’s narrative, especially given its Global South legacy?

Prof. Raza Khan: Yes, absolutely. India has led the Global South since Nehru’s era. We stood against colonialism and sided with the marginalised. We shouldn’t bend for a few trade deals. This is not the India of Shastri or Indira Gandhi if we stay silent.

Trump’s claims reduce India and Pakistan to unruly children, with him as the babysitter, suggesting a dinner to solve nuclear tensions. That’s not diplomacy — it’s patronising.

Parliament must clarify what happened. The Prime Minister owes it to the public and Opposition. Journalists must also investigate, not just echo. Otherwise, we’re selling out foreign policy to the whims of a volatile businessman.

Q: Is there still space for bold leadership to challenge US overreach?

Dr. Pasha: We must be realistic. The kind of leadership that stood up to global powers in the '50s and '60s doesn’t exist today. Our politicians don’t have that vision or statesmanship. Parliament may demand answers, but this government is unlikely to reveal much.

The Americans see our vulnerabilities — China, Pakistan, and beyond — and they’re leveraging them. Unless our leaders rediscover some courage and assertiveness, US pressure will persist. Trump, despite his erratic behaviour, knows how to exploit weakness. And we’ve made it too easy for him.

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