Exit polls predict comfortable win for NDA in Assam
Incumbent alliance projected to cross 90-seat mark as the Congress-led-Opposition is expected to falter despite all-time high voter turnout
Most exit polls for the 2026 Assam Assembly elections project a decisive victory for the state's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with the surveys placing the alliance well above the majority mark of 64 seats in the 126-member House. The main Opposition Congress and its allies are trailing far behind, while the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is expected to have minimal impact.
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Despite contesting as part of a six-party opposition alliance named Asom Sonmilito Morcha (ASM), the Congress is projected to win fewer than 40 seats. Once a significant player, the AIUDF is expected to secure only a handful of seats, reflecting reduced influence.
Exit poll projections
Axis My India predicted 88-100 seats for the NDA and 24-36 for the Congress-led bloc; Matrize gave 85-95 seats to the BJP and 25-32 to the Congress; P-Marq gave 82-94 seats to the BJP and 30-40 seats to the Congress; Chanakya Strategies gave 88-98 seats to the NDA and 22-32 to the Congress-led ASM.
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The range is more or less similar for all the surveys, with the average coming to around 88–98 seats for the BJP-led NDA, around 25–35 seats for the Opposition bloc, around 1–3 seats for the AIUDF, and some 2–5 seats for other players.
VoteVibe projected 90-100 seats for the NDA and between 23 and 33 seats for the Congress-led Opposition. The AIUDF may get between zero and six seats.
Region-wise divide
According to VoteVibe, the BJP is projected to dominate Upper Assam, consolidating its stronghold in tea garden belts and tribal areas. The predictions for Lower Assam are mixed, with the BJP ahead but the Congress retaining pockets of influence.
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In Barak Valley, the BJP is expected to sweep most seats, continuing its rise in this Bengali-speaking region. In Central Assam, the saffron party is projected to maintain a clear edge, though the Congress is predicted to show some resilience in minority-heavy constituencies.
Assam recorded 85.8 per cent voter turnout in the 2026 polls held on April 9, its highest ever. The results will be declared after counting on May 4.