Exit polls reflect Bengal uncertainty; most give BJP the edge
All but one survey projects historic ouster of TMC in Bengal, but some of them make wafer-thin differences between the two parties
Exit poll data for West Bengal, along with those for Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry that went to Assembly elections in April began to pour in on Wednesday (April 29).
In West Bengal, which held its second and final phase of the Assembly elections the same day, saw one but all polls predicting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the clear winner, dethroning the Trinamool Congress (TMC).
Only Peoples Pulse predicts Mamata win
Surveys by Praja Poll, P-Marq, Matrize and Poll Diary gave the saffron party between 142 and 208 seats in an Assembly of 294, while only Peoples Pulse said the TMC would in between 177-187 seats.
Also read: LIVE: Exit polls predict UDF in Kerala; Stalin, Himanta look set to stay; TMC shaky
Praja Poll predicted between 178 and 208 seats for the BJP and the allies, 85-110 for the TMC and its allies and between zero and five for others, that include the Left and the Congress. Both those parties failed to win any seat in the 2021 elections.
P-Marq said the BJP and the allies could win between 150 and 175 seats; the TMC between 118 and 138 seats and others between six and 10.
Also read: Major exit polls predict DMK return in Tamil Nadu; One predicts TVK win
According to Poll Diary, the BJP and allies could win between 142 and 171 seats; TMC and its allies between 99 and 127, while others between five and nine.
JVC came up with a very narrow projection, saying the BJP could get between 138-159 seats, while it projected between 131 and 152 seats for the TMC.
Chanakya also anticipated a tighter contest, with the BJP slightly ahead at 150-160 seats, the TMC at 130-140, and others between six and 10.
The NDTV-Axis My India exit poll data for the state will be released on Thursday (April 30) since voting in the state just concluded on Wednesday.
What happened in 2021
Five years ago, when the TMC swept the Bengal polls, most exit polls had pointed to a tight contest between the two parties. The aggregated "poll of polls" predicted the TMC winning around 156 seats, while the saffron party was projected to win 121. But in reality, the TMC went on to win 215 seats, while the BJP could manage only 77.