Major exit polls predict DMK return in Tamil Nadu; One predicts TVK win

Three exit polls project the DMK-led alliance returning to power in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Assembly, where a majority requires 118 seats. But beyond that broad consensus, the polls paint strikingly different pictures of how large the victory will be and how badly the Opposition will bleed in the 2026 elections.

DMK's margin remains hotly contested

People's Pulse projects the DMK at 125 to 145 seats, Matrize at a narrower 122 to 132, and Chanakya Strategies at the highest range of 145 to 160. If Chanakya's upper estimate holds, it would represent a near-historic performance for incumbent chief minister MK Stalin's alliance and a sweeping endorsement of his government's second term.

AIADMK projections diverge sharply

The sharpest disagreement across the three polls is on the AIADMK. Matrize is the most generous, projecting 87 to 110 seats. People's Pulse projects a weaker 65 to 80, while Chanakya Strategies is the harshest at 50 to 65, a range that would mark a significant erosion for Edappadi K Palaniswami's party.

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TVK may make a modest debut

Vijay's TVK is projected to open its assembly account across all three polls. People's Pulse is the most optimistic at 18 to 24 seats, Chanakya projects 13 to 18, and Matrize the most conservative at 10 to 12. A debut in double digits, by any measure, would be a credible entry into Tamil Nadu electoral politics.

An outlier prediction

One poll sees a TVK upset. A dramatic outlier has emerged in the Tamil Nadu exit poll landscape. Axis My India projects Vijay's TVK winning between 98 and 120 seats — enough for a majority on its own — while placing the DMK at just 92 to 110 and the AIADMK at a historic low of 22 to 32 seats.

The projection defies every other poll published so far, all of which had placed the DMK comfortably ahead and TVK in double digits at best. If Axis My India is right, it would be one of the most stunning electoral debuts in Indian political history. If it is wrong, it would rank among the most dramatic miscalculations. No other poll has come close to suggesting this outcome.

Puducherry points one way

In neighbouring Puducherry, both People's Pulse and Axis My India project N Rangasamy's NR Congress winning comfortably in the 30-seat assembly, with projections ranging between 16 and 20 seats.

The two polls diverge on the Congress — People's Pulse projects 10 to 12 seats while Axis forecasts a more modest 6 to 8. TVK is projected to either draw a blank or win up to 4 seats. Counting for both Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will take place on May 4.