Exit polls project UDF win in Kerala but margins vary

Three exit polls for the Kerala assembly elections project the UDF returning to power in the 140-seat assembly, where a majority requires 71 seats. All three point to a defeat for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's LDF government, which has held power for two consecutive terms. The disagreement is on how comfortable the UDF's win will be.

UDF margin divides pollsters

Axis My India is the most bullish on the UDF, projecting 78 to 90 seats, followed by People's Pulse at 75 to 85. Matrize is the most cautious of the three, projecting the UDF at just 70 to 75 — a majority, but a thin and potentially fragile one.

The gap between Axis's upper estimate of 90 and Matrize's lower estimate of 70 is wide enough to mean the difference between a strong mandate and a government that could face early instability.

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LDF stares at defeat?

The three polls are equally divided on how badly the LDF will fare. Matrize projects the ruling front at 60 to 65 seats — a loss, but a competitive one. People's Pulse projects a steeper fall to 55 to 65, and Axis is the harshest at 49 to 62, a floor that would be a historic low for the Left in Kerala.

BJP may open account

Both Matrize and Axis project the BJP opening a small account, with Matrize forecasting 3 to 5 seats and Axis projecting 0 to 3. People's Pulse has not projected any seats for the party. A BJP presence in the Kerala assembly, however modest, would mark a notable shift in the state's political landscape.

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All three polls point to a UDF government in Kerala. Whether it arrives with a strong mandate or a narrow one will be clear when counting takes place on May 4.