Can DMK retain power in TN and will TMC survive BJP challenge in Bengal? | Capital Beat

Salem Dharanidharan (DMK), Charles Nandi (BJP, West Bengal) and Shubhankar Bhattacharya (TMC, West Bengal), all spokespersons of their respective parties, debated electoral prospects in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal in this episode of Capital Beat as campaigning concluded in both states on Tuesday (April 21). The discussion focused on alliances, campaign narratives, governance claims and voter dynamics ahead of polling.

Dharanidharan asserted confidence in a DMK victory, stating, “We will sweep the election and come back to power because there is no anti-incumbency in Tamil Nadu.” He cited welfare measures and governance schemes as central to voter support.

Bhattacharya and Nandi presented sharply opposing claims on West Bengal.

Nandi declared, “2026 West Bengal elections are going to be the end of Mamata Banerjee", while Bhattacharya rejected BJP’s prospects, stating, “The BJP is actually not fighting to win the election.”

TN alliance dynamics and campaign narrative

Questions were raised over the lack of joint campaigning between Rahul Gandhi and MK Stalin. Dharanidharan dismissed concerns over alliance strain, stating, “It is always the media that has been trying to say there’s a problem with the alliance… none of the parties left the DMK alliance.”

On seat-sharing negotiations, he described them as routine, stating, “Every alliance partner will ask for more number of seats… it is a negotiation, and final decisions are made after discussions.”

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He attributed the lack of joint appearances to scheduling constraints, stating, “Rahul Gandhi’s schedule was made at the last minute… it made little sense for them to campaign together.”

Welfare schemes and anti-incumbency debate

Dharanidharan highlighted welfare schemes as a key electoral factor, including the breakfast scheme and financial assistance to women. He stated, “People are very, very appreciative of the schemes… some of them are serving as a role model not just for states in India but also across the world.”

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He added that governance delivery had strengthened institutions, stating, “Institutions in Tamil Nadu have been strengthened, enabling people to access government services with ease.”

On anti-incumbency, he maintained, “There is no anti-incumbency in Tamil Nadu,” linking electoral confidence to continuity in leadership and policy implementation.

Women’s reservation bill, delimitation concerns

The debate addressed the impact of the Women’s Reservation Bill. Dharanidharan argued, “The bill that was presented was not women's reservation bill… this bill had a lot of lacunae.”

He raised concerns over delimitation, stating, “A decision on delimitation cannot be reached in such a haphazard manner… this bill says at any point of time… boundaries can be altered.”

He further claimed, “This bill is male MPs' job-preservation-scheme,” arguing that increasing seats would protect incumbents rather than enforce reservation.

BJP's campaign, ideological positioning in TN

Dharanidharan rejected the BJP’s campaign narrative, stating, “This kind of rhetoric is not new… it has completely failed.” He also said, “Tamil Nadu is a very secular state… majoritarian politics will not work.”

He criticised centralisation, stating, “The Union government has resorted to all anti-federal acts… Tamil Nadu does not like a Union government that has centralising tendencies.”

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On leadership perception, he said, “Prime Minister Modi is not the most-liked figure in Tamil Nadu.”

AIADMK and TVK factor

Dharanidharan described internal challenges within the AIADMK, stating, “Edappadi Palaniswami is not able to fill in the shoes… the party is breaking apart.” He cited leadership gaps and factional splits as key issues.

On TVK, he said, “TVK is a new party started by a movie star… many of them have failed.” He added, “It is the weaker party that will lose more votes,” suggesting that the AIADMK would be more affected.

He also questioned TVK’s organisational depth, stating, “Vijay does not have grassroots support… it is only his fans.”

Bengal BJP’s claims of regime change

Nandi presented a strong projection of BJP’s prospects, stating, “Mamata Banerjee is fighting her last election as the chief minister.” He added, “The countdown has started… it’s only a matter of time.”

He highlighted governance issues, stating, “There is no industrial growth… nearly 7,000 industries have left West Bengal.” He also cited unemployment, stating, “There has been a rise of nearly 217 per cent in unemployment.”

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He also highlighted migration as another concern. “Nearly 80 lakh Bengali youth left the state for jobs,” he said.

TMC response and campaign narrative

Bhattacharya challenged BJP’s campaign, stating, “We don’t need a separate BJP spokesperson to echo the same thing.” He criticised campaign optics, stating, “The way it has been orchestrated… it is just like that.”

He questioned BJP’s electoral intent, stating, “They are not planning to win the election… the biggest victory is to get hold of Mamata Banerjee.” On campaign spending, he said, “The BJP is the richest party in the world… that makes it seem on the screen like that.”

Concerns over the electoral process

Bhattacharya raised concerns about voter deletions, saying, “Twenty seven lakh voters have been kept away from their voting rights.” He described the situation as systemic, stating, “The entire ecosystem has been built to arrange for a particular preset victory.”

He also criticised central intervention, stating, “You cannot stop anybody’s development fund… but you did it.”

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Nandi responded with law and order allegations, stating, “There is a complete breakdown of law and order in West Bengal.” He added, “Crimes against women are on the rise, there's huge unemployment, and a major issue of law and order.”

Competing narratives ahead of polling

Bhattacharya maintained that BJP’s objective was strategic rather than electoral, stating, “The idea is to get hold of Mamata Banerjee… so they can use the party strength in Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha.”

Nandi reiterated electoral confidence, stating, “These things are going to be reflected during the voting… Mamata Banerjee is going to be the former chief minister.”

The discussion highlighted contrasting claims on governance, alliances, and electoral processes in both states as polling approaches.

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