In Bengal, can Rahul, Priyanka go beyond 'measured aggression’ against Mamata?

Months after the debilitating result in the Assembly elections in Bihar, the Congress has a fresh opportunity coming its way to turn things around against its nemesis, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). With elections due in four states and one Union Territory soon, the Grand-Old Party will be up against both the national rival BJP and regional foes such as the Left and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

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However, there is one state, West Bengal, where the party faces a tricky situation. Although an enemy’s enemy is generally called a friend in the lexicon of political leaders and parties, it doesn’t really mirror the case of Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee, despite being the enemy of the Congress’s enemy, the BJP, is its frenemy at best. And that makes the high command’s work of determining the strategy for elections in Bengal a testing one.

Congress has to have measured aggression

The Congress, as part of its proactive strategy for all state elections this year, is likely to conduct blazing campaigning in Bengal under its central leadership, particularly Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. But it will also have to make a sensitive call at the same time — on drawing a political boundary line of sorts, which can only be breached at the expense of hurting the anti-BJP alliance’s sentiments.

This is something even some Congress insiders concede. They feel the attack against Mamata’s ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) would be measured despite the anti-incumbency factor against the party, which is eyeing its fourth successive term this year. The reason is the bigger goal of defeating the BJP on the national stage, for which a unity of all “political forces that are against the saffron party” is key.

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Despite being a regional party, the TMC’s exploits in Lok Sabha elections are never too insignificant to ignore, and it remains in the Congress’s own interest that it doesn’t burn the bridges while trying to make an impact in a state where it remains a fringe player, after all.

The Congress and the TMC, who despite being constituents of the Opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc and uniting in Parliament over issues such as seeking the removal of Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, have not found themselves on the same page when it comes to Bengal elections.

Mamata has called Rahul 'migratory bird' in past

In the past, we have seen Mamata indirectly taunting Rahul over his appearance for campaigns in the state with the term “migratory birds”, who are allegedly seen only when elections are around and focus on photo-ops. The Congress leader had also attacked both Mamata and Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the Assembly elections of 2016 while sharing a stage with the late chief minister of Bengal and Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee.

After the history-making 2011 alliance between the TMC and Congress met an untimely death the very next year, the Congress leadership’s thought about a viable third alternative in tandem with the Left was not surprising.

But the strategy didn’t pay off, and the Congress was only pushed to the brink in the state (zero seats in the 2021 state polls and one in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls), along with the Left. A decade after Rahul’s direct attack on Mamata in the state, the Grand-Old Party is planning a campaign-cum-revival programme for Bengal.

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To give wings to the vision, it has planned to rope in Rahul and Priyanka to campaign in the state. The party is also mulling a fortnight programme where it intends to hold rallies, public meetings, engagements and jan sabhas (public meetings) featuring the MP siblings. It has even deputed All India Congress Committee (AICC) observers for all 23 districts of Bengal for the ensuing polls.

Congress contesting Bengal polls solo after 2 decades

The Congress has also put up a brave face in Bengal by deciding to contest the elections alone after two decades. In 2006, when the party went solo in the state, it secured 21 seats. Five years later, it doubled the tally in alliance with the TMC to dethrone the Left.

Today, in retrospect, many Congress insiders view the move as something that only weakened the party’s own base, particularly in districts with sizeable Muslim populations, including Malda, Murshidabad, Uttar Dinajpur, South 24 Parganas, and Birbhum, besides North 24 Parganas, Dakshin Dinajpur, Nadia, Cooch Bihar, Howrah and Kolkata.

The Congress’s dilemma is evident from its electoral ploys. During the 2021 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Rahul largely stayed away from campaigning in Bengal. This was largely to ensure Mamata, a former and potential future ally who is anyway not fond of the Leader of the Opposition, doesn’t have another reason to feel annoyed with the Congress and pose problems for the party within the INDIA bloc.

The exit of Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, a fierce critic of Mamata, from the Congress’s state leadership position is also seen by many as an effort to keep the fires friendly.

Rahul, Priyanka campaign in Bengal: Against what? Till what?

So, when Rahul and Priyanka enter Bengal’s territory to campaign, who would they campaign against and to what extent? The Congress and the TMC have a common enemy in the BJP, but are not allies in the Bengal polls. They are also in the same anti-BJP INDIA bloc, but the TMC has repeatedly challenged the notion that the Congress is the alliance’s obvious pivot.

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Pitted against these many ironies, the Gandhi siblings cannot choose to be overtly critical of the mercurial TMC supremo since she remains one of those few upright voices against the BJP in today’s India.

In 2024, political quarters saw Mamata hitting back at Rahul after he made a statement in the wake of the rape-murder of a young doctor at a government-run medical college and hospital in Kolkata, which many viewed as an indictment of the TMC government. The Congress would not want repetitions of such episodes, to keep its greater goal safe.

Isha Khan Choudhury, the Congress’s lone MP from Bengal, acknowledged the state of affairs. He said inside Parliament, the party has alliances with many parties that try to champion secularism and oppose the BJP.

“This has been the case there since the INDIA bloc was formed. That is largely limited to Parliament,” he told The Federal.

The Congress is working more on a self-imposed goal of reviving its strength in a state where it was last in power in the 1970s. Party sources believe that Rahul’s campaigning in Bengal is intended to provide “impetus” to this “idea of rebuilding where the party is preparing for many future elections”.

“Our leader, Rahul Gandhiji, is going to raise issues concerning Bengal. There are issues of unemployment. In Malda, we have soil erosion issues where, year after year, we see the Ganges sinking land, homes and schools. Our people from Malda and Murshidabad are forced to migrate to earn their livelihoods in other states. Many times they are mistaken for Bangladeshis and tortured in other states for no reason,” said Choudhury.

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He also asserted that the “friendly alliance” in Parliament would not stop the Congress from taking up issues faced by the people of Bengal. “Congress is equidistant from both — the TMC and the BJP. That is why, on the demand of our workers, we have gone solo this time,” he said.

'Ensuring that red line is not crossed'

But the MP’s words are easier said than executed. A senior Congress leader in New Delhi told this publication that while Rahul would raise issues in Bengal, “there would be a restraint where we would ensure that the red line is not crossed. We don’t want communal forces that want to divide our nation to thrive. We are going to attack our opponents. However, the line of attack from the central leadership will be measured for those who oppose the BJP”.

For the state leadership, however, there would be no restraint as they could go all out against every opponent, the leader added.

No matter what Rahul says or doesn’t, the Grand-Old Party still has a task cut out when it comes to electoral arithmetic. Fighting the BJP, both the parties would be hoping to bag the maximum share of minority votes in districts such as Malda, Murshidabad, and the two Dinajpurs, but if the Gandhis can’t use the ammunition against Mamata’s 15-year rule, can the party hope to regain the fertile grounds it ceded to the TMC over the years?

If not, then how does the party resurrect its fate in Bengal?

Going back to past glory

To find a way out of the maze, the party will focus on the development it achieved during its years at the helm in Bengal. Insiders say Rahul would also present a “report card” on what subsequent governments in the state did after the Congress (the Left from 1977-2011 and the TMC since then).

To give an example, the party plans to highlight how urban centres such as Kalyani and Durgapur came up during its days in power and how some of them generated employment for several thousand people.

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Rahul is also expected to focus on educational institutions of excellence, including the IIT built during the Congress regime. A Congress leader from West Bengal told The Federal that the party “won’t get stuck in binary of the two parties — BJP or TMC”. It is also expected that the Congress will highlight its leader and former prime minister Indira Gandhi’s connection to Bengal. She had briefly studied at Bengal’s Visva-Bharati University, which was founded by Rabindranath Tagore in Santiniketan, in the 1930s.

Bidhan Chandra Roy, a contemporary of Jawaharlal Nehru and a former Congress chief minister of Bengal, is still revered as the state’s architect. Despite Bengal witnessing the arrival of big names such as Jyoti Basu and Mamata as CMs from other parties, Roy still stands out as a leader for his development work for the state. But the question is: Do today’s voters connect with the leadership and work that prevailed more than six decades ago?

'Focus will also be on BJP'

The senior Congress leader also mentioned that a plan was also in place to focus on various alleged scams under the TMC government that did not see any investigation. But he underplayed it again to say that the Congress would also target the BJP in its campaign over its alleged step-motherly treatment towards Bengal.

“It doesn’t mean we won’t focus our energies on the BJP. It is this party that has used these agencies for a political vendetta. It is the party which has not even given Rs 43,000 crore to the public under MNREGA. This is the party which is using CEC Gyanesh Kumar as its star campaigner ahead of elections. He is on a temple run in the state,” said the leader, who is from Bengal.

Senior Congress leader Sudip Roy Barman, who is also a top AICC observer for Bengal, told The Federal in an unflinching tone that the TMC would not be spared as the Congress has no electoral understanding with it.

“Rahul Gandhiji will be coming to Bengal. On the national aspect, he will be speaking against the BJP. But so far as West Bengal is concerned, he will be speaking about the ground reality. He will be speaking about joblessness, corruption, and mayhem. Obviously, he is going to speak on all those issues,” said Barman.

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He ruled out that attacking Mamata would create a problem in the INDIA bloc.

“I don’t think it will be a problem. Last time there was also no alliance with TMC, and Rahul Gandhiji minced no words to attack TMC,” he told The Federal, but added that the BJP remains the primary enemy.

Will fight Congress: TMC MP

The TMC is also not unaware of how things could shape up. It said the alliance at the Centre would not have any bearing on Bengal elections when it comes to the TMC-Congress fight.

“In West Bengal, the Congress is not a strong force. But still we have to fight. They (Congress) are a little strong in Malda and north Bengal districts,” senior party MP Saugata Roy told The Federal.

He conceded in these districts, there is a direct fight between TMC and Congress, as the BJP “stands no chance of winning” there.

There is also a section in the Grand Old Party which is perturbed by the possibility of a TMC-Congress fight facilitating the BJP’s chances in Bengal. But as an age-old Bengali political saying goes, “kendre doshti, rajye kushti” (friends at Centre, foes in state), Mamata’s topsy-turvy ties with both the Congress and BJP over the years are not something that stuns the people of Bengal anymore.