One month of Trump 2.0: Can India navigate his tumultuous world?

As Donald Trump marks one month in office, the world is witnessing a seismic shift in global politics.

In an insightful conversation on Talking Sense With Srini, on The Federal's YouTube channel, Editor-in-Chief S Srinivasan offers his views on the early days of the Trump administration, its policy shifts, and the broader implications for the world order.

A shaking of the global order

According to Srinivasan, Trump’s early days have been marked by a tumultuous start, shaking the global order that had long been driven by interdependence and a rule-based framework. “Globalisation,” once seen as the foundation for international relations, is now being dismantled by Trump’s protectionist approach. Words like decency, liberalism, and humanism, which once defined diplomacy, seem to be fading from the conversation under the Trump administration.

Also read | Trump's America First trade policy puts India at distinct disadvantage

The focus is now on “might is right,” with power dynamics shaping decisions and policies. Srinivasan suggests that the world is heading into a new era, where global power is concentrated in the hands of one individual, Donald Trump.

Decline of US soft power

One of the most significant shifts under Trump’s presidency has been his stance on foreign aid. His decision to cut USAID funding to underdeveloped nations, traditionally a tool for the US to wield soft power, is already starting to impact America’s international image. While Trump’s protectionist policies may provide short-term gains for certain domestic sectors, the long-term consequences for America’s global influence remain unclear.

Srinivasan acknowledges that the US has been a leader in emergency relief, providing humanitarian aid across the globe, from Gaza to natural disaster zones. However, Trump’s cuts to foreign aid may tarnish the US’s reputation as a global benefactor.

Drastic shift in foreign policy

Trump’s approach to foreign policy has been unconventional. His support for Russia, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has raised eyebrows. Criticizing Ukrainian President Zelensky and placing the blame for the conflict squarely on Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, Trump has defied the expectations of traditional US policy.

His upcoming meeting with Russian President Putin, where Ukraine is notably excluded from talks, marks a dramatic departure from previous US positions.

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In Gaza, Trump’s announcement of plans to convert a disputed piece of land into a luxury resort—owned by himself—further underscores his transactional approach to international diplomacy, which blends real estate ambitions with political maneuvering.

India-US: A delicate balance

Despite the challenges, India’s relationship with the US under Trump has remained cordial, at least on the surface.

The recent meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump revealed that both sides are keen on advancing their self-interest through long-term trade agreements. While Modi offered India’s tariff concessions, Trump retaliated with reciprocal tariffs, continuing his stance on trade imbalances.

Srinivasan warns that India must remain vigilant and prepared for tougher negotiations in Trump’s second term. The future of India-US relations will depend on how both nations navigate these complex issues behind closed doors, with the next round of discussions scheduled for later in the year.

End of globalisation?

One of the most pressing questions in global politics today is whether Trump’s policies signal the end of globalization. While Trump’s actions have certainly taken a toll on global trade and cooperation, Srinivasan believes that the fundamental forces of globalization—shared resources, trade, and interdependence—remain too entrenched to be dismantled by one individual.

However, the global trading order has indeed suffered a setback, with Trump’s relentless push for tariffs signaling a major shift in economic diplomacy.

Watch | Can India navigate Trump's tariff bluster?

Towards a multipolar world

The global balance of power is changing. Once a unipolar world dominated by the US, the new order seems to be evolving towards a more multipolar landscape. China is emerging as a rival superpower, and Europe, historically a US ally, is increasingly questioning its relationship with America. The US’s recent treatment of its European allies, alongside its alignment with far-right politics, has left Europe unsettled.

Srinivasan suggests that multiple power centers—America, China, Europe, and possibly others—are emerging, and the geopolitical future will depend on how these centers interact. While India is not yet aligned with any one power, its neutral stance and growing economy position it to play a critical role in this new world order.

India’s role in new world order

India’s growing economy and strategic position in global affairs mean it has a significant opportunity to influence the coming world order.

While it navigates tensions with China and maintains a strong relationship with Russia and the US, India can play a vital role in calming geopolitical tensions and fostering cooperation between major power centers.

Also read | Modi coming home hugged and happy, but Trump deal will need some work

India’s ability to engage with both Western and Eastern powers, along with its economic ascent, puts it in a prime position to contribute to a more balanced and multipolar world order.

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