India vs New Zealand: Key matchups and predictions

India and New Zealand are set to face off in the Champions Trophy on Sunday (March 2) at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium (DICS). With both teams having secured their semi-final spots, the match will determine who tops Group A. Cricket analyst Suman C. Raman shared his insights on what to expect from this last league encounter of the eight-team tournament.

Will Rohit play?

According to reports on Saturday, India captain Rohit Sharma is nursing an injury and may skip the New Zealand game. If that happens, Suman believes India will manage without much difficulty. “The New Zealand bowling department is a little dicey, as they don’t have their experienced bowlers,” he noted.

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With New Zealand fielding young bowlers like Will O’Rourke and others who lack big-match experience, India’s strong batting lineup could exploit this weakness. “The key point is how the relatively inexperienced New Zealand bowling, except for Matt Henry and Mitchell Santner, will fare against a mighty Indian batting lineup,” Suman added.

Gill to captain if Rohit not available

If Rohit misses out, Shubman Gill will be leading the Indian side for the first time, but Suman doesn’t see this as a pressure situation. “It’s not a must-win game. Even if India loses, we are still through to the semis,” he pointed out.

Also read: South Africa qualify for semifinals

Gill’s challenge will be managing the team dynamics and ensuring a smooth batting order without Rohit.

India's strategic concerns and ideal semi-final opponent

India’s focus will not just be on winning but also on positioning themselves favourably for the semi-finals. “Would India like to play South Africa? Possibly yes. Would we like to face Australia? Probably no,” Suman said, indicating that India might prefer South Africa as an opponent given their less intimidating batting lineup.

Also read: India vs New Zealand match preview

Rishabh Pant’s inclusion: A game-changer?

With discussions around Rishabh Pant’s return to the Playing XI, Suman had mixed views. “If the team wants to add more power-hitting in the middle order, Pant comes into play. But his form has been inconsistent,” he remarked.

Arshdeep Singh as Mohammed Shami’s replacement

With Mohammad Shami likely to be unavailable, India has limited options in the pace department. “Bumrah was withdrawn, leaving Harshit Rana and Arshdeep Singh. Arshdeep is the logical replacement,” Suman said. However, replacing an experienced pacer like Shami with Arshdeep makes the attack less experienced.

Key matchups: Indian bowling vs New Zealand’s top order

New Zealand’s batting lineup, featuring Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Glenn Phillips, and Rachin Ravindra, will pose a formidable challenge. Suman emphasised that India’s relatively inexperienced bowling attack, especially with Harshit and Arshdeep, will be tested. “New Zealand's top-order batsmen are calm, professional players who won’t throw away their wickets easily,” he pointed out.

Fielding will also play a crucial role, with Phillips being one of the best in the world, alongside India's Ravindra Jadeja.

Williamson’s experience makes him a key player for New Zealand. “He knows Indian bowlers well from IPL and international cricket. His calm nature and experience make him a potent package,” Suman said.

Tactical approach: Bat or bowl first?

Suman believes the decision will depend on match-day conditions. “In this tournament, teams have won the toss and both batted and fielded first. It hasn’t made a huge difference.” However, he emphasised that India's strength lies in its batting, and New Zealand’s weaker bowling gives India an edge.

If India bats first, a 300-plus score is ideal. “Even 320 is chased down easily these days. Unless the pitch offers something extra, India will need to put at least 300 on the board to stay in control,” Suman predicted.

Suman’s predicted lndia Playing XI

Shubman Gill (captain)

KL Rahul

Virat Kohli

Shreyas Iyer

Rishabh Pant

Hardik Pandya

Ravindra Jadeja

Axar Patel

Harshit Rana

Arshdeep Singh

Kuldeep Yadav

Final thoughts: India's winning chances

Suman rated India’s chances at 65-35 in their favour. “New Zealand has a weaker bowling attack, with at least 20 overs to be filled by part-time options. That’s where India can capitalise.”

However, he acknowledged that a few quick wickets could turn the game in New Zealand’s favour. “New Zealand will be competitive. They won’t take this game lightly.”

With a semi-final spot secured, the focus for India will be on perfecting their combination and carrying momentum into the knockouts.

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