IPL: 8 teams and 4 slots, here is how the playoff math is playing out

The race to the IPL 2026 playoffs is heating up with eight teams battling it out for the four slots. Two sides – Mumbai Indians (MI) and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) are out of contention.

Gujarat Titans (GT) have one foot in the IPL 2026 playoffs after winning against Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) on Tuesday night (May 12). They are on top of the table with 16 points. As per the host broadcaster, GT have a probability of 94.9 per cent of making it to the playoffs.

Also read: RCB knock out MI in last-ball thriller

GT, Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH), and Punjab Kings (PBKS) have a high probability of being the four teams to progress to the playoffs.

Here are the IPL 2026 playoffs scenarios explained for each of the eight teams in contention.

Gujarat Titans (GT) (16 points, No. 1, Remaining matches: 2)

Gujarat Titans, with their win over Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) on Tuesday night, have almost certain of making the playoffs. They now have five wins in a row and sit on top of the table. Their qualifying chances for the playoffs are 94.9 per cent, the highest among the eight teams that are in contention now.

Also read: IPL 2026 playoffs schedule

Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) (14 points, No. 2, Remaining matches: 3)

Defending champions RCB have a probability of 79.7 per cent of finishing int the top-four. They need two wins to assure themselves of a spot in the playoffs. However, even in the case of other teams doing better, and tied on equal points, RCB have an advantage of superior Net Run Rate (NRR) which is now 1.103, the best among all 10 sides.

Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) (14 points, No. 3, Remaining matches: 2)

SRH have 65.7 per cent chance of making it to the playoffs. They need to win their remaining two matches so that they don't depend on other results to progress further in the tournament.

Punjab Kings (PBKS) (11 points, No. 4, Remaining matches: 3)

After a strong start, PBKS have slumped to four successive losses and they need to bounce back to qualify for the playoffs. They have 62.7 per cent chances of advancing. They need at least two wins from the remaining three matches. However, if with one victory they could progress depending on other results.

Chennai Super Kings (CSK) (12 points, No. 5, Remaining matches: 3)

With CSK at number five in the points table, their chances of making it to the playoffs are at 42.8 per cent. They could reach the playoffs with one win and two losses in the remaining contests. However, it will depend on other results. To ensure that their destiny is in their own hands, they need to win all three since their NRR is not so good, at 0.185, low among the top five teams.

Rajasthan Royals (RR) (12 points, No. 6, Remaining matches: 3)

Like CSK, RR too need three wins out of three to ensure they don't depend on others. RR's qualification chances are at 41.9 per cent, least among the top six.

Delhi Capitals (DC) (10 points, No. 7, Remaining matches: 2)

DC have just a 1.2 per cent chance of going to the playoffs. Even if they win their remaining two matches, it may not be enough.

Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) (9 points, No. 8, Remaining matches: 4)

KKR have four matches to play and the maximum they can get to is 17 points. That would take them ahead but there could be a possibility that it might not be enough as four more teams can reach 17 points. KKR have 11 per cent chance of being in the playoffs.