Will South lose political power with delimitation?

The issue of delimitation – redrawing Parliamentary and Assembly constituencies to reflect population changes – has become a significant political controversy, particularly in Tamil Nadu and across southern India. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin has voiced strong concerns, arguing that the exercise disproportionately penalises southern states for successfully controlling population growth. Experts discussed these concerns on The Perspective, a brand new show by The Federal.

The crux of the issue is the projected loss of Parliamentary seats for southern states, which have achieved low fertility rates and controlled population growth over the years. Historically, the 1976 amendment under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi froze the number of Lok Sabha seats to prevent states with higher population growth from gaining undue advantage. The freeze was based on the argument that population control should not result in political disadvantage. However, with the next census and delimitation exercise scheduled post-2026, the debate has resurfaced, raising concerns over fair representation in Parliament.

The southern states' concern

Political leaders from Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Telangana argue that their states are being penalised for following the Centre’s guidelines on population control. If delimitation strictly follows population numbers, these states could lose up to 8-9 seats, significantly reducing their voice in Parliament. The concern is not merely about numbers but about regional representation. Tamil Nadu, for example, has successfully lowered its total fertility rate (TFR) to 1.4, well below the replacement level of 2.0. Other southern states have similar demographic trends.

Also read: Delimitation: Will Stalin's all-party meet spur northern states to join fight?

Lakshmi Ramachandran, Congress General Secretary of Tamil Nadu, emphasised that MPs represent not just constituencies but also their states. If delimitation is solely based on population, states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan could gain disproportionately, marginalising the political influence of the South. The northeastern states and smaller northern states like Punjab and Haryana also stand to lose.

BJP’s stance and the counterarguments

BJP spokesperson Aseervatham Achary dismissed these concerns as diversionary tactics by the DMK government, suggesting that Stalin is raising the issue to distract from his declining popularity. He asserted that the Central government has assured southern states that they will not lose a single seat. However, he did not clarify the methodology that will be used to ensure fair representation.

Also read: All-party meeting on delimitation calls for status quo on number of LS seats for next 30 years

Achary pointed out that census operations have been delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the next census will be digitised, making the process more efficient. However, critics argue that the delay has led to speculation and uncertainty, fueling concerns over how Parliamentary representation will be adjusted.

Historical precedents and possible solutions

The debate is not new. In 2001, former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu raised similar concerns with the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government, highlighting the potential imbalances that could arise from population-based delimitation.

Also read: ‘Immediately have babies’: Stalin to newlyweds amid delimitation concerns

Experts suggest that India could adopt alternative models used in countries like the United States, where Senate representation is fixed while the House of Representatives is adjusted proportionally. Another approach could be capping the number of seats in Parliament while adjusting representation using weighted voting or other proportional methods.

Professor Ramu Manivannan argues that the real issue is equitable representation. He points out that while Uttar Pradesh constituencies may have an average of 30 lakh people per MP, northeastern states have far smaller constituencies. A purely population-based delimitation risks further disempowering regions that have successfully implemented demographic policies.

The way forward

The Central government has remained vague on its roadmap for delimitation, leaving room for political speculation. Transparency is essential to address the concerns of all states. As S Srinivasan, Editor-in-Chief of The Federal, suggests, instead of dismissing concerns as political manoeuvring, a constructive discussion on solutions is necessary. Possible options include proportional seat adjustments, increasing the overall number of seats, or creating a more inclusive framework to ensure equitable representation across states.

Also read: Karnataka CM dismisses Amit Shah’s delimitation claim as 'untrustworthy'

The delimitation debate is more than just a political dispute; it is a fundamental question of democratic representation. With India’s population dynamics changing rapidly, a balanced approach that ensures fair representation for all states while recognising demographic shifts is crucial. The conversation must continue, and the government must take proactive steps to address concerns before the 2026 exercise begins in earnest.

(The content above has been generated using a fine-tuned AI model. To ensure accuracy, quality, and editorial integrity, we employ a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) process. While AI assists in creating the initial draft, our experienced editorial team carefully reviews, edits, and refines the content before publication. At The Federal, we combine the efficiency of AI with the expertise of human editors to deliver reliable and insightful journalism.)