As Bangladesh anarchy hits army’s image, its rift with interim govt widens

The Bangladesh army chief, Gen Waker-uz-Zaman, recently told a leading editor that he was dismayed by the failure of the interim government led by Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus in controlling the deteriorating law-and-order situation. He reportedly entertained "grave doubts" whether the Yunus administration can actually hold a free and fair participatory election.

Gen Waker is a conservative, play-safe military leader who resisted prodding from both within and outside the army to take direct control by imposing martial law in the country after the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government in August last year.

What army chief feels

He has told close friends, some of whom disclosed to this writer, that military rule in Bangladesh has never been popular, and generals like Zia-ur Rahman and HM Ershad incurred public wrath fairly soon. Even the military-backed caretaker government (2006-08) under then army chief Moeen U Ahmed became unpopular as demands for fresh elections grew. So, Gen Waker, mindful that direct military rule is unpopular across the world, decided to keep the army away from directly taking charge.

Going by feedback from his close circles, the army chief is keen to hold elections at the earliest and then let an elected government take charge. The longer the interim dispensation stays and fails to control law and order as well as the economy, the army will come in for blame.

Also read: With Dhaka turning to China, Teesta set to further strain Indo-Bangla ties

Unending mayhem

The optics of soldiers standing as mute spectators as irate mobs of students and radicals bulldozed the iconic museum in the house of Bangladesh’s founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has not exactly bolstered the military’s image as a national institution capable of rescuing the country from the chaos engulfing it.

Gen Waker’s decision not to shoot at agitating students and cause a bloodbath was welcomed in July-August last year. But the army’s image as a mere spectator amid the all-pervading lawlessness is not going down well with the people who crave for stability and security. Already, some are questioning how an army incapable of restoring law and order in the country can be trusted with UN peacekeeping duties. Gen Waker is beginning to realise he has to act decisively, not just make promises.

Army chief on elections

All the more so because it is Gen Waker who took the initiative after consulting political parties, civil society groups, and student agitators to install the interim government after the ouster of the Awami League government. He said in his first address to the nation after Hasina's flight that he was taking responsibility to bring back normalcy and promised to restore a participatory political system as soon as possible.

Although the army chief has so far firmly backed Yunus and his government, he started to get uneasy when he realised the Nobel laureate was not interested in early elections and wanted to push through a slew of reforms first. That unease surfaced publicly when Gen Waker announced that elections would be held in 2025. He said this when Yunus was away in the US last year.

Also read: Hasina vows to return to Bangladesh, calls Yunus a ‘mobster’

Options before army chief

Sources within the Bangladesh army suggest that Gen Waker is in serious consultation with his formation commanders and those heading intelligence services to find a way out of the quagmire. Since Yunus and the students are all set to launch their own party and get on with holding elections to student unions and local bodies across the country after the holy Ramzan, the army is likely to push Yunus to announce a clear roadmap for parliamentary elections.

If Yunus refuses to oblige, the army chief, once assured of total support within the force, may choose to either get President Shahabuddin Chuppu to exercise emergency powers and allow the army to firmly restore law and order by using the magistracy powers it already enjoys. Alternatively, he can push the president to dismiss the interim government which has no constitutional foundation and put a caretaker government in its place.

Hasina to return to Dhaka?

A court order has recently brought back the provision for a caretaker administration which had been scrapped by the Hasina government after it came to power in 2009.

A caretaker administration with representation from major political parties and key civil society groups may oblige Gen Waker with a roadmap for early elections.

Some wild guessers have tossed the possibility of Gen Waker bringing back Sheikh Hasina from India and installing her as prime minister since the president is on record saying she has not resigned officially.

Also read: Bangladesh polls to be held by December, Yunus assures BNP

Changes in Dhaka

Such speculations have further gained ground after Hasina's recent address over social media that "Allah has kept me alive so that I return and bring to book all those responsible for killing my people and the policemen". That she said this from New Delhi, where she has been in exile since August, has added further grist to the rumour mills that Hasina will soon be back to Bangladesh.

The Yunus government is demanding Hasina's extradition to stand trial. It seems doubtful whether the army chief will take the risk to bring her back and trigger a huge new crisis. But there seem to be indications that the army chief may be considering a change at the top in Dhaka to stop the chaos and create conditions for a national election.