Battle for Bastar Part 4: What next for the Maoists?

As security personnel go hammer and tongs against Maoists in the latter’s bastion of Central Indian forests, killing several of their top leaders, commanders, and armed cadres, and forcing the surrender of many, the rebels appear headed for a complete rout.

But while the Narendra Modi-led central government has set a deadline to finish them off by March 31, 2026, several informed people and officials sound caution over too much optimism.

A retired Maharashtra police officer and a veteran of many anti-Naxal operations in both jungles and urban centres put it matter-of-factly, “Let’s not remain under the illusion that they will be completely wiped out. Decades of our experience shows that they have great tenacity and determination, come what may. Of course, they have rarely faced the kind of reverses they have today, but that shouldn’t be seen as a precursor to their decimation any time soon.”

Also read: No rest for Maoists in monsoon; ops will continue, warns Amit Shah

Then and now

He cited their rise after the death of the original protagonist, Naxal leader Charu Mazumdar, in police custody in West Bengal in 1972 and the subsequent growth into a hugely powerful movement as the basis for his caution.

The 2025 and 1972 situations, however, present a picture in contrast. After Mazumdar’s death, they still had vast forested landscapes from Nepal to Kerala to spread their activities and win people’s trust.

They also had a new, extremely ideologically committed, immensely dedicated, courageous and sharply intelligent leadership, particularly from the then united Andhra Pradesh. Also, there was a huge administrative and developmental vacuum in these predominantly tribal areas, where the government presence was virtually nil.

At the same time, there were stories of government excesses, particularly by the police, that offered the perfect conditions for the Maoists to exploit. Today, the available landscape has diminished to virtually crouching spaces, enough only to hide temporarily, that too not without the risk of a surprise police raid and constant surveillance.

“Let’s not remain under the illusion that [the Maoists] will be completely wiped out. Decades of our experience shows that they have great tenacity and determination, come what may. Of course, they have rarely faced the kind of reverses they have today, but that shouldn’t be seen as a precursor to their decimation any time soon” — A retired Maharashtra Police officer

Vacuum filled

Although a lot of work still remains to be done, the administrative vacuum has been filled up a great deal, particularly via the Forest Rights Act (FRA) and Panchayat Raj (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act, PESA in brief, that have given locals the rights to manage their own affairs and resources.

This has effectively blunted the Maoists’ “Jal, jungle, jamin” (right to their water, forests and land) plank, thereby leaving them with little to campaign about as state’s excesses against the people.

A vast network of roads has come up over and deep into what used to be a “no-go” zone for security personnel. The police, too, have penetrated deep into the Maoists’ self-proclaimed “liberated zone”, leaving virtually no such place where they cannot undertake area-domination exercises and operations.

This has been amply demonstrated by the recent operations by central and state security forces in Chhattisgarh. The government programmes are now being made available to locals through development centres built around police stations and posts, even if there is much to be done on the welfare delivery part. Mobile phones have reached the interiors, along with network connectivity, bringing a whole new world closer to local communities.

Also read: Eight Maoists lay down arms before police in Telangana

Challenge for Maoists

Clearly, factors breeding discontent and fuelling Maoist movement have been vastly reduced. “But they still have sizeable areas to hide and regroup in other states like Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand. Also, they have built a strong network of their supporters in urban areas. According to their own claim, they have about 500 such cadres in urban areas. So, how these could be deployed to further the Maoist campaign remains to be seen,” said the official.

However, one major challenge is getting fresh recruits: with the state taking control of the vast areas previously lorded over by Maoists, Maoists have seen a huge dip in the cadre recruitment. “Our local support has dipped,” said at least two top cadres who recently surrendered before the Bastar and Gadchiroli police, respectively.

The movement thrived on the strong local support, they say. That was primarily because, as they said, due to the dominant focus on military actions rather than on political and social activities. “We were unable to hold our meetings with villagers because of increased surveillance,” one of them told The Federal in a freewheeling interview.

The security forces have made their life further difficult by recruiting local tribal youths, who prove extremely effective during the operations since they are well-acquainted with the terrain.

“Among the fresh recruits are surrendered Naxals, who have come in very handy in not only locating arms and cash dumps but also gathering real-time intelligence about the insurgents’ movements and locations,” said a senior Intelligence officer of Chhattisgarh Police.

“The recent killings of the Communist Party of India (Maoist) general secretary Basavaraju and its Central Committee member Sudhakar are examples of these strategic advantages the police have got with the drafting of locals and surrendered Maoists into their fold,” he added.

Also read: Odisha: Suspected Maoists loot truckload of explosives in Sundergarh

Meeting the world

One of the natural fallouts of the people in the hinterland coming into contact with the outside world is gadgets like television sets and mobile phones making inroads into the people’s cultural life.

“They had never seen the outside world like this before. This contact with the outside world has given rise to new aspirations among them, youths in particular,” says Jitendra Yadav, Bijapur Superintendent of Police.

The tribals, tucked deep into the forests, had never seen even their tahsil headquarters, forget about visiting places like Jagdalpur and Raipur. Now most have come out of the time warp they were condemned to all these years to come to grips with the beckoning the new world that was shut to them.

“Earlier, the youths were made to believe by Maoists that the solutions to their problems lie in the philosophies of [Karl] Marx, [Vladimir] Lenin and Mao [Zedong]. But after having seen the outside world, they have started to join the mainstream,” said Giridhar, a surrendered Maoist, who was divisional committee member of the powerful Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee (DKSZC) of the CPI (Maoist).

“They have only about 250 armed cadres left in entire central India and another about 150 in other parts. Their arms and ammunition factories, too, have been destroyed. So, they are unlikely to get anywhere close to what they were in their heyday, when they boasted over 1,000 armed militia and another 2,000-odd supporting fighters” — Sundarraj Pattilingam, Bastar IG

Not ones to go down easily

The view is echoed by many surrendered Naxals from a rehabilitation colony in Narayanpur.

But all said and done, given their past record, can the Maoist morale be deemed broken for the good?

“I don’t think so. They will not go down so easily. They will survive, especially in states like Madhya Pradesh, where they could make a new base. They also have a scope to grow in Jharkhand, which is their next big stronghold,” said a senior surrendered Maoist from Gadchiroli.

Also read: Jharkhand: CPI (Maoist) commander killed in gunfight with security forces

No future in sight?

But Bijapur SP Yadav pointed out that the Maoists “are unable to move in big formations, like their famous Battalion 1, for the fear of getting noticed”. The said battalion is estimated to have over 200 well-trained guerillas.

Yadav added: “They urgently want to choose their new leader after the death of Basavaraju. But for that, they are unable to get together. It is difficult for them to chart their future journey.”

Most surrendered Maoists and police officials talk of Bhupathi alias Mallojula Venugopal as the next likely general secretary. Bhupathi’s wife, Vimala Sidam aka Tarakka, who had been ailing for some time, surrendered before the Gadchiroli police earlier this year after being an underground revolutionary for nearly four decades.

Tarakka told The Federal that many top ranks are on the wrong side of the age, but she believes that the movement will go on for some time. Bhupathi, she thinks, remains the best bet for the top position of the party.

Bhupathi was also believed to be among the many top Maoists who had gathered at the Karregutta Hills where the security forces conducted a 21-day operation, killing 31 Maoists in April-May in what was the biggest anti-Maoist action in the history of this conflict, involving about 10,000 security personnel.

Battle in its last lap?

The banned outfit’s Central Committee, normally comprising over 40 members, is said to be now reduced to fewer than 20, while the Polit Bureau, normally consisting of about 10–12 members, too, has only three members left, according to police estimates.

With their fabled Central Indian headquarters in tatters, the Maoists do appear to be fighting a losing battle that seems to be in its last lap. Security officials believe that the large formations might now splinter into small units and rely on the old tactics of IED blasts to slow down the security offensive against them.

Very recently, a small team of Maoists came to the weekly market of Jagargunda town in Sukma district and hacked to death in quick time three policemen who were out to buy vegetables, indicating that the rebels still have enough in them to inflict damage on the security forces.

“They (rebels) will not go down so easily. They will survive, especially in states like Madhya Pradesh, where they can make a new base. They also have a scope to grow in Jharkhand, which is their next big stronghold” — a senior surrendered Maoist from Gadchiroli

Plan for regrouping

An August 2024 circular of the Maoists asked their cadres to retreat and split into small formations in the face of an intensifying security offensive.

“They have only about 250 armed cadres left in entire central India and another about 150 in other parts. Their arms and ammunition factories, too, have been destroyed by us. So, they are unlikely to get anywhere close to what they were in their heyday, when they boasted over 1,000 armed militia and another 2,000-odd supporting fighters,” said Bastar Inspector General of Police, Sundarraj Pattilingam.

But the surrendered Maoists, as well as local journalists who have seen the various ups and downs of the movement, are not ready to write the Maoists off yet.

“They might disperse and mix with the general public in civilian attire and carry out their actions by forming small teams,” two surrendered senior Maoists said. “They will not give up so easily.”

Postscript

An internal communique of the CPI (Maoists) from 2024 accessed by these reporters states that the top cadres want secret shelters to grow within India where they can take refuge and lie low in the face of increased security operations.

There are currently five such shelters in Manipur, 22 in Nepal, 13 in Bangladesh, two in Jammu and Kashmir, and about 40 in West Bengal, where security forces may not immediately target them, says this document, not yet in public domain.

Maoists want some shelters to be bred in the remote parts of Arunachal Pradesh and other northeastern states, and the communique asks their cadres to work towards that, according to this document.

Read the other stories of the Battle for Bastar series here:

Part 1: How Maoist citadel was breached

Part 2: How tide was turned with multi-pronged strategy

Part 3: Blitzkrieg in the ‘forbidden hills’

Concluding part, coming soon: Koraput police armoury raid and its aftermath