While dam raises spectre of a water tsunami if it collapses in an earthquake, extensive copper mining may cause major river water and groundwater contamination
China's plan to build the world's biggest hydropower project in Tibet and exploit huge copper deposits in the plateau has raised serious environmental concerns for India and Bangladesh.
While the dam raises the spectre of a water tsunami if it collapses in a massive earthquake, extensive copper mining may lead to a high level of river water and groundwater contamination, impacting both Tibet and its downstream neighbours.
India launched a “solemn protest” once China announced its plans on December 25 to go ahead with the dam on Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) river that is expected to produce 60,000 MW electricity.
China’s assurances
Bangladesh's foreign affairs adviser Touhid Hossain, during a recent visit to Beijing, expressed his country's concern over the proposed dam as well.
China has sought to reassure both India and Bangladesh that the dam will neither affect downstream flows because it was a run-of-the-river project nor will it cause any environmental hazard.
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But experts warn that even if the dam does not impact much on the downstream hydrology of the Brahmaputra, they cannot wish away the nightmarish scenario of a water tsunami caused by a possible dam collapse in Tibet in the event of an earthquake.
Major earthquakes
Indeed, major earthquakes have devastated the region: Assam-Tibet in 1897 (intensity 8.2 on the Richter scale) and 1950 (intensity 8.7), or Nepal in 2015 (intensity 7.8). The Nepal disaster killed nearly 9,000 people.
Studies have shown that huge dams can increase the possibility of earthquakes by sharply increasing “reservoir-induced seismicity” caused by huge water pressure on pre-existing fault lines.
Tibet sits on a major tectonic fault line, where the Indian plate collides with the Eurasian plate and produces intense seismic activity. Bordering Indian states, from Kashmir to Arunachal Pradesh, are equally prone to high level of seismic activity and have suffered killer earthquakes in the past.
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Increased seismic activity
Despite China's legendary reputation in civil engineering, experts say it will not be easy to construct a huge dam, as the one planned on the Yarlung Tsangpo, that can withstand an earthquake of 7.5 or more on the Richter scale.
In fact, there is evidence of heightened seismic activity in Tibet and neighbouring Indian states.
Tibet was shaken by a massive 7.1-intensity earthquake on January 7, barely a fortnight after China announced the construction of the Tsangpo Dam. The quake, with its epicentre in Tibet's Tingri county, killed nearly 150 people and injured hundreds.
Tremors in India
The substantial subsequent spurt in seismic activity, not only in Tibet but also in the bordering Uttarakhand state of India, has caused much consternation.
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A further earthquake, 4.2 in intensity, struck Tibet on February 2 at at a shallow depth of 10 km.
On January 30, a 4.1-magnitude earthquake jolted the same area. Prior to that, a 4.5-magnitude quake struck the region on January 27, while a 4.4-magnitude tremor was recorded on January 24.
Shallow earthquakes
Nine earthquakes measuring between 2.5 and 4 on the Ritcher scale have hit various places in Uttarakhand in the last week of January. The last of these had its epicentre at Fuch-Kandi near Sarutal lake in the Yamunotri range.
While the shallow earthquakes tend to cause substantial surface-level damage if they roll in quick succession, they also point to the possibility of a massive earthquake.
China’s argument
The ambitious Yarlung Tsangpo dam has been projected by Beijing as a clean renewable energy initiative, intended to reduce China's dependence on fossil fuels and meeting its carbon neutrality goals by 2060.
The mega-dam will come up in Medog County in Tibet at the “Great Bend” where the river takes a dramatic U-turn before entering India’s Arunachal Pradesh.
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This location, mentioned in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), is ideal for hydropower generation due to the river’s steep descent of nearly 2,000 metres.
Diverting water
The dam will also be used to control the Yarlung Tsangpo’s flow under China's ambitious South-North Water Diversion Project to reduce water stress in arid regions like Beijing, Hebei and Tianjin in northern China.
Understandably, concerns have been raised on how the dam can give China much leverage over downstream countries like India and Bangladesh which depend on the Brahmaputra for agriculture, drinking water and livelihood.
Some fear the project could be used as a geopolitical tool in Sino-Indian relations as any manipulation of the river’s flow would have significant repercussions for India’s northeastern region. The plans for northward water diversion reinforce such fears.
Environmental fears
Apart from concerns over a mega-dam in an earthquake-prone area running the risks of infrastructure failure leading to catastrophic downstream flooding, environmentalists fear it could threaten the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, home to several critically endangered species.
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It could also lead to large-scale deforestation and soil erosion, irreversibly altering the region’s biodiversity, and make it vulnerable to adverse climate change.
Copper deposits
The recent discovery of a massive copper deposit in Tibet has been transforming China’s mineral industry, with far-reaching implications for global markets, green energy production and geopolitics.
More than 20 million tonnes of newly identified copper reserves have been found in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, significantly expanding China’s already dominant resource base.
This discovery will help strengthen China’s position as a global leader in copper production and fuel its ambitions for a sustainable energy future.
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Copper and China
Copper demand is surging worldwide, especially due to rising production of electric vehicles, renewable energy technologies and infrastructure projects.
Copper is essential for electric grids, battery production and advanced industrial applications, making it a crucial green energy transition.
As countries compete to ensure stable copper supplies, this discovery makes China the pivot of future supply chains, potentially giving it greater leverage over global markets.
Copper mining’s hazards
However, large-scale copper mining in an ecologically sensitive region could disrupt local ecosystems and exacerbate geopolitical tensions.
The Qinghai-Tibet plateau is one of the most ecologically sensitive regions in the world, home to unique biodiversity and fragile ecosystems that could be irreversibly damaged by large-scale mining.
Extracting copper from high-altitude, remote locations necessitates huge infrastructure like roads, processing plants and water-intensive refining operations, all capable of undermining traditional habitats.
China is determined
The plateau’s delicate water systems, including glaciers and high-altitude rivers, are particularly vulnerable. Copper mining often leads to heavy metal contamination, which can pollute rivers and groundwater supplies, impacting local wildlife and communities that depend on these water sources.
The risk of tailings dam failures, which have caused major environmental disasters in other mining regions, adds another layer of concern.
But China seems determined to go ahead with both the mega-dam and the huge copper mining, leaving downstream countries like India to sit and worry.
