India eyes Seychelles poll run-off amid high-stakes strategic interests

The run-off is to be held from October 9 to 11.

Pitted against each other in the run-off are incumbent President Wavel Ramkalawan, who is seeking a second successive term, and veteran lawmaker Patrick Herminie of the United Seychelles Party (USP).

Tough fight

It will be a tough fight if the vote percentage of the two in the initial round of polling is any indication. While Ramkalawan got 46.4 per cent of the votes polled, Herminie was marginally ahead with a vote share of 48.8 per cent. A presidential candidate needed over 50 per cent of the votes cast for an outright win in the initial round of polling.

An Anglican priest-turned-politician, Ramkalawan of the Linyon Demokratik Seselwa Party had defeated the then President Danny Faure of the USP in the 2020 presidential polls.

This win of Ramkalawan’s party was significant given that it managed to end the unbroken 43-year-long rule of the USP in Seychelles.

Strategic stakes

Regardless of who wins, New Delhi will have to remain closely engaged with the government in Victoria, given its strategic stakes in the archipelago and the wider Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Also read: Rajnath flags off IOS SAGAR, inaugurates infra projects at Karwar

Seychelles remains central to New Delhi’s original mantra of Security and Growth for All (SAGAR) in the IOR, which was expanded to the more encompassing MAHASAGAR (Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions) earlier this year.

Regardless of who wins, New Delhi will have to remain closely engaged with the government in Victoria, given its strategic stakes in the archipelago and the wider Indian Ocean Region.

The IOR is not only a crucial part of India’s wider Indo-Pacific strategy but also a region where China is increasingly on the prowl. Like other small island states in the IOR, Seychelles is also part of China’s strategy to increase its presence in the region.

China has been ardently wooing Seychelles by constructing several infrastructure projects in the archipelago.

To counter this, India too has been providing Seychelles with development assistance and executing several infrastructure projects. Defence and security cooperation, too, is high on the bilateral agenda. Among other things, India in the past has gifted two Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft and installed six coastal surveillance radar systems in the Seychelles.

Indian Navy vessels too continue to make frequent port calls in Seychelles.

Apart from the two Asian giants competing for influence, the US has its own strategic imperatives in the region. Given the Seychelles proximity to the Gulf of Aden, the Gulf nations too are interested parties.

India's interests

The strategic significance of this 115-island archipelago can be gauged from the fact that India has, in the past, invested huge diplomatic capital to persuade successive governments there to allow it to develop a so-called “facility” on the Assumption Island there.

Also read: Maldives | Who gets to control the Indian Ocean’s ‘tollgate’?

Indian efforts, however, have not borne fruit even though New Delhi and Victoria signed an agreement in 2015 to support “air and maritime operations” on these islands in what was ostensibly meant to help the Seychelles Coast Guard in its surveillance operations. In the years since, New Delhi has seen this agreement being consigned to the dustbin, thanks to opposition in the archipelago to this move.

The proposed facility was perceived as a military base. In addition, there were concerns about the impact any development on Assumption would have on its rich ecology.

Before his 2020 presidential victory, Ramkalawan as Opposition leader had indicated that he was in favour of the “facility” on Assumption Island, raising New Delhi’s hopes that his government would implement the 2015 pact. However, once elected, he had a change of heart following domestic protests and questions being raised about what it would mean for Seychelles’ sovereignty.

Row over Assumption Island

While Seychelles may be Africa’s smallest country, it has an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) that is spread over 1.4 million sq km and is known for its rich marine and terrestrial biodiversity. Assumption Island itself is barely 27 km away from the Aldabra atoll, a marine reserve recognised by UNESCO as a world heritage site.

China has been ardently wooing Seychelles by constructing several infrastructure projects in the archipelago. To counter this, India too has been providing Seychelles with development assistance and executing several infrastructure projects.

With the island becoming a hot button issue in the run up to the presidential polls, Ramakalawan has reiterated that there will be no foreign military base in his country.

However, it is under his watch that land on Assumption Island has been reportedly leased to a Qatari company for 70 years for the construction of a luxury resort, raising hackles in the Seychelles. While Ramkalawan has justified this move on grounds of getting much needed investment, the move has not gone down well with his countrymen. Activists in Seychelles have been seeking a halt to this project.

Wait and watch for India

For now, it seems a tough race to the finish line between Ramkalwan and Herminie. The latter’s party has already won a majority in the National Assembly – voting for it was held simultaneously with the presidential polls – winning 19 seats in the 35-member house.

For India, having lost out on developing Assumption, it can only wait and watch as the controversy around this island plays out.

For now, it will be hoping that its own strategic interests are protected in the archipelago vis-à-vis an aggressive and expansionist China, regardless of who takes charge in Victoria.