Manipur ground report: Armed groups, Myanmar factor hinder return to peace

The queue in front of the Inner Line Permit (ILP) counter at Imphal’s Bir Tikendrajit International Airport belies the image of a state going through an ethnic war for about two years.

For the uninitiated, any Indian citizen who is not a permanent resident of Manipur needs the permit to enter the state ever since it has been brought under the ILP regime on December 11, 2019. It was the fulfilment of a long-pending demand of the people of the state by the BJP governments at the Centre and the state.

The counter wore a desolate look when this writer landed here in July 2023, barely a couple of months after the outbreak of the strife.

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The traffic on the streets and the hustle and bustle in the famous all-women Ima Keithel (mother’s market) was another contrasting image to the city then under curfew.

It hosted the 2nd Eikhoigi Imphal International Film Festival (EIIFF) a week earlier — from February 6-9. The foreign participants, except those from Nepal and Bhutan, were not given permission by the Union Home Ministry for participation.

An odyssey of resilience

There were more telltale markers of the city — a mirror of the state — trying to put up a bold face against all odds.

The sign of the fightback was in fact visible even when this writer last visited the state to cover Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, whichwas flagged off on January 14, 2024 at Thoubal, around 32 km south of Imphal. The crowd before the ILP counter then, however, primarily comprised Congressmen and journalists.

To put it briefly, the Manipur story is an odyssey of resilience – the fight of the common citizenry to go about their daily activities navigating traumatic experiences and trepidation.

A longing for peace

The force driving the resilience is a strong urge for normalcy and restoration of peace – a common desire expressed by the people on the street and by several legislators who turned against the Biren Singh government for failing to end the cycle of violence.

“We want a permanent solution to this crisis. We have been suffering a lot and the same goes for the common people in the hills. A peace process should start,” said Thokchom Sujata, president of the Imagi Meira, a grassroots women’s organisation.

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The proliferation of weapons and the burgeoning armed groups are posing the biggest challenge to any attempt to resolve the conflict, said an official of the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) deployed in the state. He did not wish to be named as he is not authorised to speak to the media.

His view was shared by peaceniks who have been trying to mediate peace between warring Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities.

Demilitarisation of society

“Demilitarisation of the society is aprerequisite for peace. Without that, the true voice of the people will remain suppressed,” Ashang Kasar, the convenor of the Forum for Restoration of Peace, told The Federal.

The peace forum is the initiative of the two neutral communities — Naga and Meitei Muslim.

Kasar said some vested interest groups on both sides are stonewalling the peace initiatives.

A clandestine inter-community parley was organised in Shillong last year to break the ice between the confronting communities. Representatives from Meitei, Kuki, and Naga communities attended the meeting at the Meghalaya capital, another peace initiator said, seeking anonymity.

The process was derailed because of the strong objection to such an initiative by the armed groups, he said.

Conducive atmosphere for militancy

The festering conflict has created a conducive atmosphere for militancy to thrive by citing the need to defend their respective community against rival aggression, said an army official.

“Various groups have taken full advantage of the situation to boost their strength,” he pointed out. “The current civil war in Myanmar further added to their advantage.”

There are 7 prominent Meitei and 25 Kuki militant groups.

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The powerful Meitei groups are two factions of the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), two factions of the People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), and Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP). The KCP and KYKL again have splinter groups.

Five of the valley-based groups, namely UNLF (Koireng) faction, KYKL, KCP, and PREPAK (Vice Chairman) and PREPAK (Progressive) have recently formed a united front called G-5, according to an intelligence report.

Arambai Tenggol – largest beneficiary of conflict

Arambai Tenggol, a revivalist organisation formed in 2020 to protect Meitei culture and tradition, reportedly is the largest beneficiary of the conflict in terms of organisational growth.

The group, allegedly patronaged by the previous Biren Singh government and a section of the BJP, morphed into an armed militia from a civil volunteer group.

According to various central intelligence agencies, the group now has around 60,000 cadres dispersed in 65 units across the valley. They function as village volunteers. Of them, around eight thousand are trained armed personnel.

UNLF (Pambei)

The UNLF (Pambei) is another outfit that has significantly increased its strength. The group was facilitated by the state government to enter into a ceasefire agreement with the Centre in the midst of the ongoing conflict in November 2023.

The group had around 65 members when it broke away from the parent group under the leadership of Khundongbam Pambei in 2020, according to a report of the Jamestown Foundation, a global research and analysis group.

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Its current strength, according to Indian security agencies, is around 2,500 registered cadres. Their accommodation has become a bone of contention as the government of India has approved only Rs 28.99 crore under Security Related Expenditure (SRE) for the construction of two designated camps that can house only around 700 persons. The group is asking for six designated camps.

Kuki-Zo armed groups

The collective strength of the armed groups active in the Kuki-Zo area is 2,181, according to a recent record of the Manipur state assembly.

These groups are in Suspension of Operation (SoO) agreement with the government. 17 of these groups have formed an umbrella organisation known as the Kuki National Organisation (KNO). Together, they have 1,122 cadres. The remaining eight have a joint platform called the United People’s Front (UPF). It has 1,059 cadres.

The SoO, unlike the ceasefire agreement, does not permit expansion of an organisation during the truce period. Because of this, the groups have not officially gone for expansion, sources said. But they have trained hundreds of youths as armed village volunteers, who essentially are the de-facto members of the groups, said an army official.

Sophisticated weapons with armed groups

Around 3,800 sophisticated weapons, out of about 6,000 looted from various police armouries of the state since the eruption of ethnic violence, have been added to the arsenals of these groups.

So far only 2,200 looted weapons have been recovered by the security forces.

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“The first brief we got after the imposition of the President’s Rule is to recover arms and flush out militants or confine them to designated camps,” said the army official.

The Myanmar factor

It will be easier said than done considering the Myanmar factor, said another official of the army’s 3 Corps. He said the neighbouring country has turned into a major arms market for sourcing weapons by armed groups of the state.

Over 2,600 rebel groups have been waging armed movements against Myanmar’s military Junta since the April-2021 flare-up, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a non-profit group that analyses and maps data on political violence across the world.

These rebel groups have captured around 100 Myanmar junta bases, including nearly 10 military battalion headquarters. This led to the seizure of a huge cache of the junta’s arms and ammunition.

Sale of arms

“Many of these seized weapons are entering Manipur as Myanmar’s rebel groups sell the surplus or out-of-pattern weapons (arms they are not trained to use),” said the official.

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) - the two ethnic armed groups of Myanmar - also have their own arms factories, sponsored by China, according to Indian intelligence sources.

They produce variants of the type-81 and M23 assault rifles. Both are Kalashnikov-pattern rifles, usually used by militant groups of Northeast India.

Arms-smuggling corridors

The recent clashes between the Kuki National Army, Burma (KNA-B), and the Meitei and Naga insurgent groups inside Myanmar were reportedly for taking control of the arms-smuggling corridors.

The KNA (B) wants to choke the flow of arms to Meitei militants through two routes in Naga-dominated Min Tha and Pantha areas of Myanmar’s Sagaing region.

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The last such gun battle was reported in January this year. It lasted for five days from January 27 to 31, as per reports available with Indian intelligence agencies.

Cross-border dynamics

The cross-border dynamics will be the biggest challenge to the demilitarisation process the Government of India proposes under the President’s Rule regime, stated the army official.

To restore peace in Manipur, India will also have to find ways to deal with the geopolitical complexities emanating from Myanmar, he continued.

Until then, the lasting peace that the people desperately crave for will not be possible, and the semblance of normalcy that currently exists could disappear.