Modi 3.0 sees mixed bag with southern NDA allies; next year is critical

After 10 years of watching from the sidelines while Narendra Modi's BJP enjoyed a brute majority in the Lok Sabha, South India-based parties got a breakthrough of sorts in the 2024 general election.

As part of the NDA bloc, Chandrababu Naidu's TDP won 16 of 17 seats it contested in Andhra Pradesh, while Pawan Kalyan's Janasena Party won both the seats it contested. In neighbouring Karnataka, HD Kumaraswamy's JD(S), also an NDA ally, won two of the three seats it fought.

The numbers by themselves may seem unimpressive, but in a Lok Sabha where the BJP had been reduced to 240 seats — against 303 in 2019 and 282 in 2014 — every seat mattered. Naidu, Pawan Kalyan, and HD Kumaraswamy (HDK) would keep Modi, heading a coalition for the first time, on tenterhooks, and land many a largesse for their respective states, it was thought.

However, the year from June 9, 2024, when Modi struck a hat-trick as Prime Minister, has hardly panned out the way it was expected to.

AP: Eager to please

This time last year, Naidu was lauded as a “kingmaker”. The people of Andhra Pradesh expected that he would extract his pound of flesh from the NDA in lieu of political support. They thought Modi, wary of Naidu’s unpredictability, would liberally extend support to Andhra Pradesh.

The state, after all, is yet to economically recover from the bifurcation of 2014, which had led to the birth of Telangana.

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They were proved wrong. Naidu’s frequent trips to Delhi and his palpable eagerness to please Modi leave one wondering who is dependent on whom. Till date, Naidu has visited Delhi 12 times since he assumed office in June 2024 to meet either Modi or Home Minister Amit Shah.

In public meetings, the first thing Naidu does is sing paeans for Modi as the "saviour" of the country, and how he, a seasoned politician himself, could learn many things from the Prime Minister.

Making do

So unilateral is the deference that Naidu is unable to demand anything publicly from the Centre, including what Andhra is due under the AP Reorganisation Act, 2014. With the Centre in no hurry to open the purse strings, Naidu silently tries to generate revenues from the state itself.

Even in the case of delimitation, Naidu has never aired concerns like his other South Indian counterparts. Talking to the media recently, he meekly said Modi will address the concerns of the southern states, that delimitation based only on population would reduce their representation in Parliament.

While the TDP has received little for Andhra from a Union government that depends on it for stability, the BJP, with just eight MLAs in the state Assembly, has extracted two Rajya Sabha seats from Naidu.

This has given the BJP, which has a mere 2.83 per cent vote share, substantial political girth in the state. All those leaving the YSR Congress are enthusiastically embracing the BJP instead of the TDP or Jana Sena.

Survival instinct?

According to Prof E Venkateshu of Hyderabad Central University's Political Science Department, Naidu is wary of upsetting Modi. Though reduced to 11 seats in an Assembly of 175 seats, with a 39.7 per cent vote share, Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress could stage a comeback, Venkateshu told The Federal. "Naidu is taking every precaution so that he doesn't upset the Prime Minister with any of his demands," he said.

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“For Naidu, the 2029 election is crucial for two reasons – first, he has to ensure that the capital city of Amaravati is constructed. Second, his son Nara Lokesh should succeed him as the chief minister," Venkateshu said.

"To achieve these goals, the NDA in Andhra Pradesh should not get rocked, and he should ensure that Modi does not get annoyed and look towards Jagan. So, Naidu cannot afford to exert pressure on Modi for more money, special packages etc. What Naidu needs is Modi’s blessings,” he added.

Perhaps that explains why the NDA in Andhra Pradesh looks more like a Modi-led coalition than a Naidu-led one.

Tamil Nadu: Tough terrain

Further South, the BJP is on shakier ground. “Though I live in Delhi, my ears are always on Tamil Nadu,” said Amit Shah during his June 8 Tamil Nadu visit.

They would be. Tamil Nadu and Kerala have proven a rocky terrain for the party. After going it alone in the 2024 general election and losing heavily in Tamil Nadu, the BJP has managed to bring the AIADMK back into the NDA fold ahead of the 2026 Assembly election.

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In Tamil Nadu, the BJP is solely dependent on the AIADMK to challenge the ruling DMK. So eager was it to woo the AIADMK that it replaced K Annamalai with Nainar Nagendran as Tamil Nadu BJP chief. Annamalai's confrontational style had strained ties with the AIADMK allies beyond repair.

With AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) leading the NDA coalition in the state, the alliance aims to capitalise on anti-incumbency to take on the DMK.

The NDA’s strategy focuses on consolidating the AIADMK’s traditional voter base with the BJP’s growing urban and middle-class support. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, though contesting separately, the AIADMK and BJP-led NDA polled around 41 per cent of the vote share, trailing the DMK-led alliance’s 47 per cent. If allied, they could have led in 34 additional Assembly constituencies, particularly in western Tamil Nadu, it is expected.

Implementation is tricky

However, the road ahead is not easy. Integrating the AIADMK into the NDA fold has been tricky.

A section of AIADMK cadres is wary of aligning with the BJP, fearing it could alienate voters sensitive to “northern impositions” like Hindi or delimitation.

Another hurdle is accommodating smaller allies like the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) within the NDA. Both parties, with their regional influence, could demand significant seat shares, which EPS and the BJP leadership have to address.

Balancing these allies’ ambitions with the AIADMK’s dominant role in the coalition could strain negotiations.

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Karnataka: Back in form

After the 2023 Assembly poll debacle, the BJP last year brought the JD(S) back into the NDA fold ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It virtually turned the tables on the Siddaramaiah government in the state, with the NDA doing well in the Lok Sabha election.

The BJP won 17 seats and the JD(S) two, while the Congress managed to secure just nine of 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Though the JD(S) has only two MPs, HDK was given two important ministries in the Union government. This shows the Modi government’s intent to revive the fortunes of the NDA in the state.

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As a Union minister, HDK is actively working to resume key projects in the state, including the revival of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Visvesvaraya Iron and Steel Plant (VISL) in Bhadravati. These are seen to create jobs and boost the local economy. He has also announced electric bus projects to improve public transport in Karnataka.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s state unit is facing challenges like poor leadership and internal feuds. The JD(S) alliance becomes even more critical in this context. HDK, meanwhile, is using his role in the Union government to build his party’s influence.

Caste equations

In the 2028 Assembly elections, the combined vote share of the BJP and JD(S) is expected to pose a significant challenge to the Congress. Historically, JD(S) and BJP have been perceived as common enemies by Congress supporters, and their grassroots workers are unlikely to shift allegiance to the Congress.

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The Vokkaliga community, which remains loyal to HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy, is expected to gravitate towards the NDA. The BJP believes that a Vokkaliga–Lingayat coalition could prove unbeatable against the Congress, which traditionally banks on AHINDA (Minorities, Backward Classes, and Dalits).

Though the JD(S) is primarily a regional party with a strong base in Old Mysuru, its core support comes from Vokkaligas. Despite BJP's efforts to project leaders like Dr CN Ashwath Narayan and R Ashoka as Vokkaliga faces, they failed to gain strong community backing.

In contrast, Deputy CM DK Shivakumar made some gains among Vokkaligas in the 2023 Assembly elections, but the 2024 Lok Sabha polls showed the community's continued preference for HDK. Notably, the BJP-JD(S) alliance even defeated DK Suresh, Shivakumar’s brother, in Bangalore Rural.