Year 1 of Modi 3.0: PM calls the shots as powerful allies remain non-assertive

For almost ten-and-a-half months after taking oath as prime minister for a record-equaling third time (though sans majority unlike Jawaharlal Nehru, who had the numbers with him for the third time in 1962), Modi appeared to be a diminished premier, in relation to what he had been over the past decade.

Especially so after 2019, when his party secured not just a simple majority but as many as 303 seats in the Lok Sabha.

Sindoor turns the tide

However, the terrorist strike in Pahalgam provided Modi with an opportunity to take retaliatory action, like he had done in 2016 in response to the attack in Uri, and again in 2019 when terrorists struck once again in Pulwama.

But the political balance sheet at the conclusion of the first year of Modi 3.0, or NDA 1.0, certainly reads more in his favour than how it was posited last year.

Although we do not have electoral evidence of Modi’s political resurrection in the wake of Operation Sindoor, going by past behaviour of people in polls held in the wake of the muscular nationalist response of the Indian government, the tide appears to have once again turned in Modi’s favour.

Also read: After Op Sindoor, Modi has many questions to answer to Indians

In a survey conducted by C-Voter, 63.3 per cent of people were completely satisfied with the Modi-led government's response to the Pahalgam terror attack and its handling of the situation arising from it, including the military conflict.

This number, however, had declined by 4.8 per cent from the 68.1 per cent of respondents who expressed ‘complete satisfaction’ when the operation was still ongoing and a ceasefire had not been declared.

‘Narendra-Surrender’

Quite clearly, these people who changed their viewpoint were those who did not endorse the idea of the ceasefire because they felt that Indian forces should have been allowed to further ‘press’ the accelerator and inflict further damage to Pakistan; some people in fact expressed dismay at Modi failing to do a ‘repeat’ of 1971.

This section of people, who drifted away from the lot that ‘completely’ backed Modi’s actions, did not turn ideological adversaries. Contrarily, they would remain hardcore supporters of the political cocktail from a mix of Hindutva and jingoistic nationalism.

Importantly, the Congress tried to wean away such people from the BJP by producing an ill-advised AI-generated video in which a character with close likeness to Indira Gandhi admonishes Modi in Hindi: “Hey Narendra, what have you done, you should have played your full hand along with supporters and Opposition. If the forces had fought with full force, victory would have stood two steps away…)"

Also read: All-party outreach to draw zilch if BJP doesn’t give up divisive agenda

This was followed by Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Narendra-Surrender’ jab at the Prime Minister. It merely underscored that in the eyes of the Congress, importantly the largest opposition party in India, the support for the action against Pakistan was significant if not overwhelming.

Persona stands strong

This, however, is not the last word insofar on the public backing for Modi on account of waging Operation Sindoor against Pakistan. By the time the next round of elections is held, in late autumn in Bihar, many more developments would have taken place, maybe even on the India-Pakistan front, and this could further impact public sentiments in the same direction, or may even in the reverse.

But the political balance sheet at the conclusion of the first year of Modi 3.0, or NDA 1.0, certainly reads more in his favour than how it was posited last year.

Also read: Why Modi is reluctant to declare Nitish Kumar as NDA's Bihar CM face

Last year, the assumption that Modi in his third term would be at his weakest was based on a few facts. The first of course was that the BJP, with 240 members in the lower house, did not have parliamentary majority for the first time since 2014 and was dependent on the support of three numerically significant allies. The TDP, the JD(U) and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) respectively held 16, 12, and 5 Lok Sabha seats.

It was felt that after having been marginalised for so long and rarely consulted on policy matters, even on matters dealing with ministries headed by their members, these parties would demand the proverbial pound of flesh when it came to decision-making in government.

However, in the past year, these parties have remained primarily non-assertive. As a result of this, Modi has not been forced to modify his persona and make it more ductile and malleable.

Power remains in Modi’s grip

While assessments last year were made on the basis of the fact that he had never worked ‘in collaboration’ with other parties or leaders since his Gujarat days, the situation throughout the year was such that none of the coalition partners exerted pressure on Modi to ‘change’ his working style.

This has ensured that he retains the same extent of elbow room within the government as between 2014 and 2024.

Last year, it was assumed that the arithmetic of the NDA in the Lok Sabha would ensure that Modi would have to form a NDA Coordination Committee and appoint a non-BJP leader as its convenor.

Watch | What Modi can learn from Vajpayee on running coalition govt

There was also some talk last year of agreeing on the common minimum programme on the lines of the National Agenda of Governance that contained guiding principles for the Union government during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s tenure from 1998 to 2004.

This, too, has remained an idea on paper, and the concentration of power remains in Modi’s hands.

Clout in Sangh family

Last year, the schism between the BJP and the RSS was the primary reason behind the failure of the former to fall short of a parliamentary majority.

Over the past year, Modi bent his back in his interactions with the RSS brass, a fact headlined with his visit to Nagpur at the end of March this year. He also toned down the projection of his personality cult, which was assiduously done since 2014.

The RSS, on its part, got back to campaigning for the BJP in assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi successfully and unsuccessfully in Jharkhand, where too, the outfit turned out in full uniform backing the party candidates.

Also read: Mohan Bhagwat's West Bengal mission: Fix growing RSS-BJP rift

Party leadership

Prior to the Pahalgam terrorist attack, the vexed matter of the next BJP president also appeared to be moving towards a consensual settlement. However, post Operation Sindoor, the issue has been delayed once again.

It would be imprudent to hazard a guess and set a timeline under which the BJP will complete the necessary state unit elections before the next national president can be ‘elected’.

But it is possible that sensing the reversal in his fortunes for the better, Modi is once again being unyielding on this crucial matter.

The eventual identity of the next BJP president and the manner in which she or he is elected, will provide an indication of the inner dynamics of the Sangh Parivar, and how much of functional autonomy Modi is able to seize once again.

No triumph over Trump yet

Over the past year, Modi has also made a major tactical concession on an issue which was propping up the Opposition, especially Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.

Over the past year, Rahul vociferously campaigned for a caste census. After much delay and prevarication, Modi altered his position because of the pressure, announcing the government’s intention to include a query on the caste identity of the respondent in the next Census, the schedule of which has finally been announced.

Also read: Caste census a huge step against RSS tradition; will Sangh agree to it?

The only ace that has not come Modi’s way was his hope of being able to strike a good deal with American President Donald Trump and further smoothen Indo-US ties. But with Trump’s continued insistence on having brokered India’s ceasefire with Pakistan, there is much that Modi has to tend to now.

Yet, after crossing yet another milestone in the phase of his life when he has continually held public offices since October 2001, he would certainly be breathing more easily than he did on June 4 last year, when general election results were announced, and June 9, when he got sworn in as Prime Minister for the third time.

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