As year 1 of Modi 3.0 wraps up, neighbourhood remains India's biggest concern
India’s pursuit of its foreign policy helped it improve ties with Canada, and China; it must now convince the world to make Pakistan give up its reliance on terrorism
As Narendra Modi took the prime ministerial oath for the third time on June 9, 2024, the world was conscious that he had not succeeded, as he had in 2014 and 2019, in securing an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha. It would have realised that while the lack of an absolute majority may inhibit some of his actions and policies in the domestic sphere, it would not constrain the pursuit of his foreign policy. Modi 3.0, too, did not need to modify its foreign policy positions, for the external environment did not require them.
Predictable framework in Biden era
Joe Biden, who had assumed the US presidency in January 2021, had calmed global waters by following predictable paths on geo-political and geo-economic issues, as well as on the existential crises confronting humankind, including climate change. Thus, in the Biden years, Modi pursued Indian interests globally within the comfort of a predictable framework. India, therefore, took a position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in line with its interests: it stated that aggression was unacceptable in principle, but shook off European criticism of its continued dealings with Russia in oil and defence equipment.
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On the Hamas attack, its sympathies lay with Israel. Above all, it continued to strengthen its relationship with the US. In the US too there was bipartisan support for enlarged India-US relations. A cloud had arisen on the US implying that Indian intelligence agencies had attempted to conspire to murder Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an active promoter of Khalistani separatism. It became clear, however, before the November 2024 presidential election that the two countries had reached a modus vivendi on the case. Vikas Yadav, a RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) official against whom a case was lodged in India too, fell off the radar.
Improved India-Canada ties
With the Covid pandemic years behind it, the international community’s priority became economic development. India was well placed to take advantage with a growing economy. While global liberal opinion had reservations about the direction India’s society and polity were going, governments were not guided by these considerations.
However, with Canada, ties reached a new low, with its accusations that Indian agents had orchestrated the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar but it obviously did not have evidence as distinct from what it believed was credible intelligence. With the change of guard in Canada, relations are now looking up. The new Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, who is not dependent on the Sikh vote has changed his predecessor’s course and has invited Modi to the G7 summit. India’s outreach to the Indo-Pacific, Africa and South America continued in Modi 3.0. So did its courting of the Indian diaspora; in line with the Sangh Parivar’s agenda, its emphasis on its Indic traditions to project its soft power.
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Hostile neighbours
What caused great concern to Indian policy makers in the first year of Modi 3.0 was the neighbourhood. Ties with Bangladesh reached a nadir with the abrupt departure of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024 from Dhaka for India. In the midst of the agitation against her government, her continuance in power had become untenable. With the rise of anti-India forces in Bangladesh, India’s eastern flank became vulnerable and fertile ground for the consolidation of these forces. Its western flank is and will continue to remain hostile. India was tardy in responding to Taliban’s overtures but as the months passed, it did respond. The northern flank is uncomfortable too. With the political changes, the southern flank continues to remain uncertain.
With China, relations, which had become deeply disturbed since the summer of 2020, became somewhat more stable after the Modi-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in October 2024 in Russia. However, the status quo prior to the Galwan incident has not been fully restored. Besides, there cannot be a return to the 1990s agreements on peace and tranquility along the LAC. So, a new equilibrium had to be achieved. That would inevitably bring India more into the Western orbit than the past. That would also be because of China’s relentless pressure on India’s immediate neighbourhood.
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Modi tries to woo Trump, but in vain
Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election upturned the world, and it compelled all countries, including India, to deal with a new, disrupted world. The immediate impact was witnessed in Indians illegally staying in the US being brought home in shackles. That caused outrage in the country. Trump called India the tariff king and announced that he would enhance US custom duties to bring them in line with what India imposed on US products. He also made it clear that he did not want US manufacturers to put up facilities in India instead of America. On security issues, the old alignments continued, but there was an uncertainty if Trump would reach a modus vivendi with China.
What are the ways India sought to deal with the new situation?
Modi tried to court Trump. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar attended his swearing-in, and Modi paid a bilateral visit in early February, becoming one of the first leaders to visit the Oval Office. However, Trump announced a tranche of tariffs against India while Modi was in Washington, signalling his seriousness in wanting a trade deal with India that would effectively open up its market for US products. Negotiations are on.
All eyes on QUAD summit
Trump showed his true colours towards India and Modi during and after Operation Sindoor. Despite Indian denials, Trump repeatedly insisted that it was his mediation that averted a potential nuclear conflict. He also claimed that both India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire when he threatened that he would break off trade relations.
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India said that trade did not figure in Indo-US conversations during Operation Sindoor. Trump 2.0 virtually treated India and Pakistan on par. This demonstrates that Modi’s claims of the importance of personal ties in inter-state ties do not cut any ice with him. All eyes will now be on the coming QUAD summit in India in September and whether Trump will come or send Vance.
Terrorism, a significant challenge
India is realising the importance of Europe but reaching a deal on trade with the EU is a difficult proposition. It is not clear how far India will go with it in the security sector.
The Pahalgam attack on April 22 (which came after the Balochis attacked the Jaffar express in Balochistan on March 11) showed that India will use kinetic force to respond to Pakistani terrorist attacks. The all-party delegations made it clear to the world that India is united on this. The world, however, is more concerned with avoiding the escalation of armed hostilities between nuclear-armed countries.
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Thus, as the first year of Modi 3.0 ends, his government’s significant challenge is to make the global community understand that a terrorist attack from Pakistan is the ‘original escalation’; hence, the major powers have to make Pakistan give up its reliance on terrorism. This will not be easy as terrorism is not an international priority.
