With Dhaka turning to China, Teesta set to further strain Indo-Bangla ties

Teesta, one of the most contentious issues in India-Bangladesh relations, is back on the diplomatic table.

In a post-Hasina scenario, however, it threatens to pose a greater challenge to the bilateral relations than it did under her rule.

Hasina was thrown out of power by a students’ protest that turned into a people’s insurrection on August 5 last year. Relations between the two countries have been strained ever since, and the Teesta issue can make it worse.

Also Read: Bangladesh: Yunus calls for resolving issues over Teesta water-sharing treaty with India

Sharing the water of Teesta has tested cross-border relations since the subcontinent’s partition, but an agreed equitable share of water has been elusive, even though different political parties have been in power in both countries.

In July, India announced the decision to send a technical team to Bangladesh for conservation and management of Teesta after a meeting of Hasina and her Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, in New Delhi.

Chinese involvement

However, the Mohammed Yunus-headed interim government in Dhaka has now asked a Chinese state-owned company to prepare a concept note for Teesta’s Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project by December and conduct a feasibility study on the project by 2026.

India had expressed its concerns with Hasina of allowing China to work so close to its strategic “chicken’s neck” or the Siliguri corridor, linking Indian north-eastern states with the mainland when she had approached Beijing for executing the Teesta project.

The interim government’s decision to approach Beijing now is an attempt to rile Delhi for its inability to resolve the issue.

Also Read: Bengal opposed to any India-Bangladesh pact on Teesta water sharing: Mamata

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which was the main opposition during Hasina’s rule, galvanised people in the northern districts of the country to hold 48-hour protest rallies this week to demand that India give Bangladesh its fair share of water from Teesta.

Teesta, the contentious river

The river spans 414 kilometres from Sikkim and travels through the northern part of West Bengal before entering Bangladesh to empty out in the Bay of Bengal.

India has built a number of hydel power projects and dams on the Teesta, affecting its water flow.

Teesta is among the 54 transboundary rivers between India and Bangladesh. It is the fourth-largest river of Bangladesh and the main river for the country’s northern areas in the Rangpur division. It is important for the area’s agriculture, and accounts for about 14 per cent of the country’s crop production and supports the livelihood of 10 to 14 million people.

Dams in India constrain water flow to Bangladesh

The dams constructed inside India have constrained the flow of water upstream and affected its discharge into the neighbouring country. This has impaired irrigation of over 1,00,000 hectares of land, say Bangladesh experts.

It got 6,710 cusecs (cubic feet per second) of water before the dams were constructed. But now 1,200 to 1,500 cusecs of water go to Bangladesh in the dry summer season, often dropping to 200 to 300 cusecs that creates acute misery for Bangladesh’s farmers.

Also Read: Bangladesh India enters race to conserve Teesta river in Bangladesh: What's the strategy?

Modi wanted to resolve the Teesta issue as he had done with the long-pending issues of boundary and enclaves between the two countries. But West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee opposed any agreement on Teesta that would benefit farmers but deprive those in her state.

According to a report by New Delhi’ s Observer Research Foundation (ORF), in March 2023, India decided to build two more canals to divert the water of the Teesta. This was in violation of the agreement between the two countries which prevented any major construction for water diversion and forced Bangladesh to write a letter to New Delhi protesting the Indian decision.

Bangladesh’s Teesta irrigation project

As Bangladesh realised it would be difficult to find a political consensus on the issue in India, it decided to build the Teesta irrigation project with a multipurpose barrage that would dredge and embank portions of the river to form a single manageable channel and raise the water level substantially.

The cost of the project was estimated to be USD 1.1 billion, and Bangladesh decided to approach China, its trusted development partner, to carry out the Teesta irrigation project.

Since this would bring China within 100 kilometres of the Siliguri corridor, New Delhi urged Dhaka not to go ahead with the project to safeguard India’s security concerns.

In return, India offered to construct the project for Bangladesh.

Modi’s announcement to send a technical team to Bangladesh for making the necessary assessment came in this backdrop.

Sino-Indian relations and Bangladesh

The Indian offer had put Hasina in a spot.

Earlier, she had walked back from the Sonadia deep-sea port project on the Bay of Bengal near Cox’s Bazar days before she was to sign the final agreement with China.

Hasina did this in the wake of concerns raised by India, Japan, and the United States about asking China to construct the port in a strategically-important area of the Indo-Pacific.

Also Read: Mamata livid after Centre excludes Bengal govt in talks with Bangladesh

Hasina then agreed to have the Japanese build the Matarbari port, 25 km away from the proposed Chinese project.

She was reluctant to do the same thing with the Teesta project as it would seriously impact her relations with the Chinese in a negative manner.

Bangladesh sees Chinese as better option

Before the Indian offer to send a technical team to Bangladesh materialised, Hasina was ousted from power, leaving the issue undecided until it was revived recently by involving the Chinese in the project.

Bangladesh officials say China is a better option than India as it completes projects faster than India, and the Teesta project is urgently needed to be completed.

Also Read: India still ‘first’ for Hasina, but lack of Teesta solution puts all eyes on China trip

The BNP and other political parties, however, see it as a major political plank to shore up their own image domestically by standing up to India’s “injustice”.

Sharing water of common rivers between neighbours has always remained a highly emotive issue, and most Indian observers should know this well.

If the Teesta issue hots up in the coming days, it should not come as a surprise.