China’s population dips for 3rd year; how situation varies in India
In China, population growth is decelerating and absolute numbers are falling; in India, population growth rate is declining, but total population is still growing
China’s population has fallen for a third consecutive year in 2024, and there is growing concern that the world’s second largest economy will begin to struggle as the number of workers and consumers decline.
Increasing costs from elderly care and retirement benefits are also expected to create further strains for China’s local governments, which are already in debt.
Indians, which recently beat China to become the world's most populous country, needs to take a close look at the neighbour's demography to draw appropriate lessons. However, there is one key aspect that gives India some leeway — while its population growth rate is declining, the population per se is still growing.
China’s births, deaths
China’s birth rates have been declining for decades due to the one-child policy it enforced from 1980 to 2015 as well as rapid urbanisation. With the number of deaths outpacing a slight increase in births, experts in Beijing warn that the situation will worsen in the coming years.
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The nation's National Bureau of Statistics announced on January 17 that the total number of people dropped by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, compared with 1.409 billion in 2023.
China’s total births were 9.54 million in 2024 versus 9.02 million in 2023. The birth rate rose to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024 versus 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023. The number of deaths was 10.93 million in 2024, against 11.1 million in 2023.
Costs of urban life
Experts say that like in Japan and South Korea, huge numbers of Chinese people have migrated from rural farms to cities in search of employment and better earnings.
But the newly urbanised Chinese find that having children is more expensive.
Simultaneously, the high cost of childcare and education, uncertainty regarding employment and a slowing economy have discouraged many in China from getting married and starting a family.
Also read | India's South and North are worried about population for vastly different reasons
India’s population saga
India’s population doubled to 1.2 billion between 1975 and 2010, eventually touching the billion mark in 2000. The Indian population now stands at over 1.428 billion, above China’s 1.425 billion.
India’s population is expected to reach 1.7 billion by 2050.
What is truly worrying economists is that India's total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to 2.0 children per woman in the 2019 to 2021 period, per data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5). This is below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. In simple terms, this means the population is not adequately replenishing itself.
The fall in fertility rate shows that population control can be achieved without embracing the kind of draconian steps as taken by China. Yet, a rate below the replacement level is rather worrisome, since it suggests that the population is ageing fast, which could impact the employable population pool.
India-China parallels
The fall in fertility rate is not unconnected to what is happening in China – a major movement from India’s rural areas, where jobs are hard to come by, to urban centres.
Experts believe that India’s urban population will touch a whopping 800 million by the middle of this century. This could further reduce the number of children each family has because bringing up children in urban areas and providing them with quality education and life is not easy.
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It is in this background that chief ministers, particularly in the South, are urging people to have more children. Earlier this week, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu warned of the dangers of falling fertility rates and cited South Korea as an example.
Population redistribution
One point to be noted here is that while the population growth rate in India has fallen from 1.47 per cent in 2010 to an estimated 0.89 per cent in 2024, the actual numbers are still rising. India's population has grown from 1.2 billion in 2010 to 1.44 billion in 2023, and an estimated 1.45 billion in 2024.
Redistributing the population may appear a simplistic solution, but it could address a lot of concerns.
Expanding facilities in tier 2, 3 and 4 cities so that the metros are not burdened, and implementing schemes to integrate migrant labourers with the local communities, may alleviate some of the concerns over falling fertility rates.
