LIVE: Exit polls predict UDF in Kerala; Stalin, Himanta look set to stay; TMC shaky
As curtain falls on final phase of polling, all eyes are on predictions for Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Bengal, and Puducherry ahead of the May 4 results
The marathon election season across four states and one Union Territory reached its crescendo today as the final ballots were cast in West Bengal. In the second phase, Bengal saw a record 90 per cent voter turnout.
The focus shifts instantly to the exit poll predictions, which will begin trickling in after 6:30 PM. These surveys will offer the first data-driven glimpse into whether incumbent governments in Kerala and Assam have held their ground, if the high-decibel campaigns in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have swayed the electorate, and who holds the edge in the crucial battle for Puducherry.
While the official counting of votes is scheduled for May 4, the exit polls are set to trigger a night of intense political debate and anticipation across the country.
Get live updates here.
Live Updates
- 29 April 2026 10:18 PM IST
Bengal records highest-ever voter turnout of 92.47 pc
The West Bengal assembly polls ended on Wednesday with what the election watchdog said was the state's highest-ever voter turnout of 92.47 per cent.
Wednesday's second phase saw a 91.66 per cent turnout by closing time, with thousands of voters still waiting in queues to cast their ballots. The concluding phase covering 142 constituencies in south Bengal appears poised to match the first phase's record voter participation of 93.19 per cent by the time final numbers are collated.
The Election Commission said a 91.66 per cent turnout was recorded in the second phase till 7.45 pm, putting the combined poll percentage over the two-phases at 92.47 per cent. The first phase of polling was held on April 23.
"This is the highest-ever recorded poll participation since Independence in West Bengal," it said.
- 29 April 2026 10:11 PM IST
High voter turnout, not landslides, may define 2026 elections: Psephologist
As India awaits the final verdict in crucial Assembly elections across Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry, noted psephologist and election analyst Sanjay Kumar, in an interview with The Federal, argues that political competition, voter mobilization, and anxiety over electoral processes are reshaping voting patterns more than simplistic narratives around exit polls. - 29 April 2026 10:08 PM IST
Has UDF broken Pinarayi's hat-trick chances? Exit poll discussion
Exit polls for the Kerala Assembly election point to a narrow advantage for the UDF, but stop short of indicating a decisive wave—suggesting that the state’s political contest remains finely balanced.
The projections hint at a possible return to Kerala’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments, even as the LDF attempts to retain power for a rare consecutive term.
The Federal spoke to MG Radhakrishnan and KJ Jacob, both senior journalists who have tracked Kerala politics for decades, to decode what the numbers may mean and the deeper trends shaping the verdict.
- 29 April 2026 10:06 PM IST
Media repeatedly got it wrong on Vijay's TVK: Political analyst
With most exit poll surveys giving the DMK an edge in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections and downplaying the so-called “Vijay wave”, the debate has shifted to the actor-politician’s real impact. The Federal spoke to political analyst R Rangaraj to unpack what the numbers and narratives actually mean. - 29 April 2026 10:04 PM IST
Bengal, Assam exit polls spark fierce debate | Capital Beat
As West Bengal concluded voting on Wednesday (April 29) and the exit polls projected BJP wins in both Bengal and Assam, panellists on The Federal’s Capital Beat dissected whether the projected advances are real or overstated. - 29 April 2026 8:40 PM IST
Exit polls showing the results as we had expected: Manoj Tiwari
On exit polls, BJP MP Manoj Tiwari said, "We are clearly ahead in Assam, West Bengal and Puducherry. The exit polls are showing the results as we had expected...We are looking weak in Kerala, but we are confident that if not today, then tomorrow, the BJP will rule there too. The exit polls in West Bengal have strengthened our confidence. I thank the people for the love they have showered on us from all sides this time." - 29 April 2026 8:36 PM IST
TN exit polls: TVK confident of winning the polls
Reacting on the exit polls results, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) spokesperson Radhan Pandit is confident of winning the Assembly elections despite the poll of polls predicting around 30 seats. He said, “We are just ignoring these exit polls. I am sure we are going to sweep this election by above 170 or above 140. We studied very well. We had our personal survey. We are sure about a minimum 45% of vote-banking. It's not between 20-25 per cent... 108 hours to go for the election counting... 109th hour, we are going to take the oath. Our Vijay will become the Chief Minister extraordinarily."
- 29 April 2026 8:30 PM IST
Bengal polls: Voter turnout higher than Phase 1
West Bengal Chief Electoral Officer Manoj Agarwal said the voter turnout for the Phase 2 of polling reached 92.47 per cent with slightly higher voting than the first phase. “Polling was largely peaceful, with only minor incidents. Kolkata saw historic participation — even those who had never voted before came out, treating it like a festival."
- 29 April 2026 7:53 PM IST
Axis My India projects TVK majority, defying all other polls
An extraordinary outlier has entered the Tamil Nadu exit poll count. Axis My India projects TVK winning between 98 and 120 seats in the 234-seat assembly, a figure that, at its upper end, would give Vijay's party an outright majority on its own. The DMK is projected at 92 to 110 seats and the AIADMK at a dramatic low of 22 to 32.
This stands in complete contrast to every other poll published today. People's Pulse, Matrize and Chanakya Strategies all projected a clear DMK majority, with TVK winning between 10 and 24 seats at most. Axis My India's numbers, if accurate, would represent the most stunning electoral debut in Indian political history. May 4 will be a definitive verdict on which poll read Tamil Nadu right.
- 29 April 2026 7:31 PM IST
TMC dismisses exit polls, predicts TMC landslide
Rejecting exit poll projections in West Bengal, Kunal Ghosh of the All India Trinamool Congress dismissed the surveys as disconnected from voter sentiment on the ground.
“The exit polls are baseless… It has nothing to do with the ground reality,” he said, pushing back against the numbers released after voting concluded. Ghosh expressed confidence that the results would sharply differ from the projections. “We will win more than 235 seats,” he said, while predicting a limited showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party. “The BJP will not even win more than 50 seats.”
