LIVE: Exit polls predict UDF in Kerala; Stalin, Himanta look set to stay; TMC shaky

Assam Congress Saikia rejects exit polls, cites Assam job crisis

Dismissing exit poll projections in Assam, Leader of Opposition and Congress candidate from Nazira, Debabrata Saikia, said the outcome would reflect public dissatisfaction rather than survey trends.

“I don't pay much attention to exit polls,” he said, arguing that voter sentiment on the ground pointed elsewhere. “The common man didn't vote for the BJP this time. I know this because elections are fought on issues.”

Saikia criticised the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party over what he described as unfulfilled commitments. “The BJP gave us a vision document for 10 years, but none of its promises was fulfilled,” he said, adding, “Instead of good times, bad times came for Assam.”

He pointed to unemployment as a central concern. “Unemployment is a major issue… with more than 3.3 million unemployed youth. Nothing was done about that,” he said. Raising concerns about governance, he added, “There's more corruption than before, and all the promises made haven't been fulfilled.”

DMK cites governance record behind favourable exit polls

Responding to exit poll projections for the 2026 Assembly election in Tamil Nadu, DMK's T. K. S. Elangovan credited the party’s record in government for the confidence reflected in the surveys.

“…The performance for the past five years has helped DMK to come back to power,” he said, pointing to recent economic data. “Even yesterday, the report says that the economic indicators show that we have doubled our economy in Tamil Nadu.”

He linked that growth to leadership under Chief Minister M. K. Stalin, arguing it has shaped public sentiment. “That shows how our Chief Minister is running the state. So people have faith in him,” Elangovan said, adding, “And they want him to become the Chief Minister for the second term.

DMK says exit polls underestimate its Tamil Nadu lead

Reacting to exit poll projections in Tamil Nadu, Saravanan Annadurai of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam said the party expected a decisive mandate, describing the forecasts as understated.

“Right from the day of the election, we have been maintaining that we will win this election with a massive margin,” he said, adding that the projections did not fully capture the scale of support. “The exit polls, though they are conservative in my estimate… the numbers given by these pollsters are conservative.”

Annadurai expressed confidence that the party would surpass its targets. “I am very confident that we will cross the 180 mark,” he said, suggesting the vote share gap would also be substantial. “It will be more than 5%.”

Attributing the outcome to governance and leadership, he said, “People have overwhelmingly supported the DMK party… because of the welfare measures and the aura of our Chief Minister.” Referring to M. K. Stalin, he added, “He has single-handedly carried the entire elections… and he is going to be the next Chief Minister of the state.”

DMK IT wing hints at victory after exit poll projections

Within minutes after three major exit polls predicted a comfortable majority for the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the party's IT wing stated in a post on X "Let the leader descend..Let history be written." However, the post did not make any direct reference to the exit polls.

Three polls, three margins: UDF leads in Kerala

Three exit polls for Kerala all project a UDF victory, but they tell notably different stories about the margin.

People's Pulse is the most bullish on the UDF at 75 to 85 seats, followed by Axis My India at 78 to 90. Matrize is the most cautious, projecting the UDF at just 70 to 75 — a majority, but a thin one in the 140-seat assembly.

The LDF numbers diverge even more sharply. Matrize projects the ruling front winning 60 to 65 seats, a relatively respectable tally, while Axis projects a steeper fall to 49 to 62 and People's Pulse sits in between at 55 to 65.

The BJP adds an interesting footnote. Both Matrize and Axis project the party opening an account — 3 to 5 and 0 to 3 seats respectively — while People's Pulse had forecast nothing for them.

All three polls agree on a UDF government. Whether it is a comfortable majority or a razor-thin one is where the uncertainty lies. Results will be declared on May 4

Chanakya Strategies gives DMK its biggest majority yet in Tamil Nadu

Chanakya Strategies projects the DMK-led alliance winning between 145 and 160 seats in the 234-seat assembly — a commanding majority. The AIADMK is projected to win between 50 and 65 seats, while TVK is forecast at 13 to 18 seats. Others are projected to account for 5 to 8 seats.

Chanakya Strategies is the most bullish on the DMK of the three polls — People's Pulse projected 125 to 145 seats and Matrize a narrower 122 to 132, while Chanakya's upper estimate of 160 would be a near-historic haul. On the AIADMK, the polls diverge sharply: Matrize is the most generous at 87 to 110, People's Pulse projects 65 to 80, and Chanakya the harshest at 50 to 65. TVK's range across the three polls runs from 10 to 24 seats. All three agree the DMK returns to power. The real question on May 4 is by how much — and how badly the AIADMK bleeds.

TMC alleges BJP misused central agencies after exit polls

Soon after exit poll results were announced, the All India Trinamool Congress launched a sharp attack on the Bharatiya Janata Party, accusing it of leaning on institutions rather than public support in West Bengal.

In a post on social media, the party claimed, “BJP has no voters in Bengal. That is why they rely on the machinery of the Election Commission, Central Forces, and Central Agencies to somehow drag themselves over the line.” The remarks came within minutes of the release of exit poll projections, setting the tone for an increasingly combative political exchange.

The statement also alleged widespread intimidation during polling. Referring to Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the party said, “The mindless violence unleashed by Amit Shah’s ‘goonda bahini’ in uniform is a reflection of a party staring at imminent defeat.” It further claimed that voters across groups had been targeted. “They have terrorised voters, harassed and assaulted women, the elderly, patients, and even children in a bid to suppress Bengal’s voice.”

Despite these allegations, the party struck a note of certainty about the outcome. “But no amount of intimidation, violence, or fear will save BJP from the people’s verdict.”

Axis exit poll echoes NR Congress win in Puducherry but TVK makes inroads

A second exit poll for Puducherry broadly agrees on the winner but throws up notable differences in the details. Axis projects the NR Congress winning between 16 and 20 seats in the 30-seat assembly, closely mirroring the 16 to 19 seats projected by People's Pulse. The consensus on N. Rangasamy's party returning to power appears firm across both polls.

The divergences, however, are striking. Axis projects the Congress winning just 6 to 8 seats — significantly lower than the 10 to 12 seats People's Pulse had forecast, suggesting a weaker performance for the grand old party in the union territory. More notably, Axis projects TVK winning between 2 and 4 seats, a sharp contrast to People's Pulse which had predicted a complete blank for Vijay's party on its Puducherry debut. Others are projected at 1 to 3 seats against People's Pulse's 1 to 2.

Matrize exit polls gives DMK a tighter win in Tamil Nadu, AIADMK fares better

A second exit poll for Tamil Nadu presents a closer contest than earlier projected. Matrize predicts the DMK-led alliance winning between 122 and 132 seats in the 234-seat assembly — a majority, but a narrower one than the 125 to 145 seats projected by People's Pulse. The more significant divergence is on the AIADMK, which Matrize projects winning between 87 and 110 seats, a considerably stronger performance than the 65 to 80 seats People's Pulse had forecast. TVK also takes a hit in the Matrize numbers, projected at 10 to 12 seats against People's Pulse's more optimistic 18 to 24. Others are projected to win between 0 and 6 seats.

Poll Diary gives BJP the edge in West Bengal, contradicting earlier exit poll

A sharply contrasting picture has emerged for West Bengal, with Poll Diary projecting a BJP victory — a dramatic departure from the People's Pulse exit poll published earlier. Poll Diary projects the BJP winning between 142 and 171 seats in the 294-seat assembly, with the TMC projected to win between 99 and 127 seats. The Congress is projected to win 3 to 5 seats and the Left 2 to 3, with others accounting for up to 1 seat.

This stands in stark contrast to the People's Pulse projection, which gave the TMC a landslide of 177 to 187 seats and restricted the BJP to 95 to 110.